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Pro Pick From
AJ Hoffman

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(At current odds)

2023-01-22T20:00:00.000Z 2023-01-22T20:00:00.000Z - NFL

315 Cincinnati Bengals
vs.
316 Buffalo Bills

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

01/22/2023

NFL Sides

Bills

10-27

-5

2

L

-220

Analysis


This really boils down to the injury woes for the Bengals right now. Their offensive line has been bad most of this season. They grade 30th in PFF pass blocking, and now they look like they are going to be without 60% of their starters on Sunday. Guard Alex Cappa did not practice with an ankle injury, and not surprisingly, LT Jonah Williams didn’t practice with his dislocated kneecap. La’el Collins is on the IR. CB Tre Flowers also missed practice today. The Bengals are already without their top CB Chidob Awuzie, and Eli Apple got banged up in the last game. For the Bills, CB Dane Jackson, DE Daquan Jones, S Jordan Poyer and NT Jordan Phillips were all limited participants, but that is probably a better report than I would have expected. Isaiah McKenzie missed last week’s game, but he is now listed as a full participant. Both these teams underperformed last week, but the only reason the Bills game was close was because of turnovers. The Bengals were outplayed, got dominated statistically, and won BECAUSE of a turnover. The Bills are 4th in pass rush, and even though Burrow gets the ball out fast, he has been sacked 147 times in his career already, which remember he missed 6 games his rookie season.  To put that in perspective, Patrick Mahomes has been sacked 148 times in his career that goes back to 2017, including playoffs.

The Bills have to limit turnovers, and that is an admitted concern, but I still think this line is too short given the health of these two teams and the Bills home field advantage here.

Pick Creation Time:
01/18/2023 6:07 PM
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