JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ DETROIT LIONS 2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Optimum OU line: 51.5 or less points
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The MoTown Boys came up TWO points short for us last Thursday in their game against the Bills. Despite that loss, we have no problem going right back to another Detroit ‘OVER’ as they host the Jaguars in Week 13. Let’s not forget that games at Ford Field have STILL averaged 60.6 combined ppg this season. And in NON-DIVISION home games with a pointspread of 7 or less points, DETROIT has gone an OVER-whelming 13-1 O/U in the last 4 years (62.1 ppg)! On the flip side, if you’re gonna consider a Jaguar ‘OVER’, at least we’re doing it at the right time: Off a CAREER game from QB Trevor Lawrence (29/37 for 321 yrds / 129.8 QBR rating)... and playing with confidence against the WORST defense in the entire league. Last week, the Jags came from behind to take down the Baltimore Ravens 28 to 27. 15-1 O/U last 5 years: All GAME 8-15 teams off a SU home dog WIN in which they scored AND allowed 27 or more points (JAGUARS)... The OU line in that game last week for J’Ville was a low 43 points. 8-0 O/U since 2000: All NFL teams with a line of 50 or MORE points off a home game in which the OU line was 44 or less points (JAGUARS)... Since we’re on the subject of HIGH OU lines, let’s run a non-conference database query. NFC home favs of < 7 pts (DET) have gone 13-1 O/U L5Y vs any AFC opponent (JACK), when the OU line is a high 50 or more points... Detroit’s in the middle of 3 straight home games in a row. 8-0 O/U since 2015: All NFC favs in the 2nd of 3 STRAIGHT home games (DET) vs any AFC opponent (JACK)... With both of these teams UNDER .400 on the year, we also note that: GAME 9 or greater < .400 NFC home teams (DET) have gone 12-2 O/U s’2017 vs any < .400 opponent (JACK), when the OU line is in the range of 41 to 53 points... As mentioned above, Detroit lost at home last week 28 to 25. 7-0 O/U L2Y: All NFL teams off a SU home loss BUT an ATS win in which they scored AND allowed 25 > points (LIONS). Despite a .364 YTD winning percentage, Detroit has reeled off 4 ATS wins in a row. Which sets up our last query: 9-1 O/U since 2006: All GAME 15 or less < .400 home teams off 4+ ATS wins (DET), when the OU line is 38 or more points.