TENNESSEE TITANS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 1* Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Optimum OU line: 44.5 or less points
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Marc Lawrence and I covered the TITANS @ EAGLES game pretty extensively on this week’s ‘Against the Spread’ podcast. And the more I look at it, the more ‘sneaky VALUE’ there appears to be on the OVER. Figure on a pretty hard ‘pass heavy’ offensive gameplay for the host Eagles. Yes, they ran for 364 yards last Sunday Night. But they’ll be taking on a very good rushing defense in the Titans, who are allowing only 84.5 rushing YPG and only 3.9 yards per rush. From the database: NFL GAME 4 > non-division home favorites of < 9 pts have gone 17-3-1 O/U when they RUN for 4.8 > yards per rush (EAGLES), vs any opponent who ALLOWS < 4.0 yards per rush (TITANS), when the OU line is > 38 points… Based in the spread and OU line, the implied final score is Philly 25.5 - Tennessee 19.0. SO the question is: Will the Titans allow MORE than 20 points in this game (after NOT doing it in each of their last 8 games)? Well, if they DO… we note that the Titans have gone 28-5-1 O/U L5Y when allowing more than 20 points in a game. And PHILADELPHIA is 15-3 O/U in the last 2 years when they score > 20 points… The Eagles scored 40 points last week, and only 17 points in the game before that. 8-0 O/U L2Y: All NFL teams who scored 40 > pts and 17 < pts in each of their last two games, when the OU line is 54 or less points (avg combined pts in these games: 58.5!)… With both of these teams amongst the BEST in the league, we also note that: 14-2 O/U since 2016: All GAME 12 to 15 greater than (>) .750 HOME teams (EAGLES), versus any WINNING (> .500) opponent (TITANS)… With this being a non-conference game, we’ll close with a great OVER situation from THIS season. So far in 2022, NFC Conference home favs (EAGLES) have gone 11-3 O/U versus any AFC opponent (TITANS). These games have averaged 50.4 ppg.