FREE $25 when you Join Now –Use your Free $25 to get a FREE Pick!

Pro Pick From
King Creole

Make this pick

(At current odds)

2022-12-04T18:00:00.000Z 2022-12-04T18:00:00.000Z - NFL

451 NY Jets
vs.
452 Minnesota Vikings

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

12/04/2022

NFL Totals

OV NYJ/MIN

22-27

44½

2

W

200

Analysis
NEW YORK JETS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS 
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL 
Optimum OU line: 44.5 or less points 
————— 

We’ll kick things off in the JETS @ VIKINGS game at 1:00pm ET. It opened at 41.5 on the ‘lookahead’ line, and has already gone up to the current number of 44.5 to 45.0 points. That line move is no surprise, given the fact that the Jets are off their most dominant offensive performance of the season. In wet and windy conditions, QB Mike White had an almost PERFECT QB rating (149.3), and threw for 308 yards in the win over Chicago. One has to think that he should do just as well(if not better) in an INDOOR game the next week... especially knowing that he’ll be facing the WORST passing defense in the entire league (Vikings are allowing 276 passing YPG). Meanwhile, we have no problem pulling the trigger at one of the BEST home ‘OVER’ stadiums in the NFL. That would be US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The VIKINGS have gone 30-12-1 O/U in the last 10 years as non-division home favorites of < 13 points. That includes 10-1-1 O/U in the last four seasons. Avg line: 46.7... Avg combined points: 54.8... Avg OU margin: +8.1 ppg. Not only that, but Minnesota has the league’s 2nd HIGHEST Red Zone TD% at home this year at 76% (Detroit is #1 at 80%). What that means is that when the Vikings get to the Red Zone, they score a TD 3 out of every 4 times. And that’s what we want as OVER bettors: TD’s... not FG’s... As this is a non-conference game (NFC vs AFC), we can’t help but notice that: NFC home favorites of < 5 pts (MIN) have gone a PERFECT 8-0 O/U so far this season versus any AFC opponent (NYJ). And in the last 4 years, these games have gone 10-1 O/U in GAME 3 or greater when the OU line is less than (<) 47 points... This is one of those late-season games featuring two very good opponents (Min 9-2 SU / NYJ 7-4 SU). GAME 12-13 non-division home favs of > 10 pts have gone 14-2 O/U since 2003 when (a) BOTH teams are > .600 on the year (MIN + NYJ), and (b) the OU line is in the range of 39 to 47 points... The host Vikings are on extended rest off a Turkey Day night game (beat New England 33-26). NFL non-division teams off a THURSDAY home ‘OVER’ have gone a favorable 57-21-3 O/U since 2006 (73% Overs)... This is also the 3rd STRAIGHT home game for the host Vikings. 14-2-1 O/U since 2016: All non-division home favs of < 11 pts in their 3RD straight home game (VIKINGS), when the OU line is in the range of 39 to 52 points. On the flip side, we’re certainly aware that New York has a Top 5 defense this year. And in fact, they’ve allowed only 10 points in EACH of their last two games. With that said, the database tells us that: NFL road dogs of < 4 points who ALLOWED 10 < pts in each of their last two games (JETS) have gone a PERFECT 9-0 O/U since 2015.
Pick Creation Time:
12/01/2022 9:43 AM
Comment Stream

Email Share Sent

Your share has been sent.

x

Quick View

Loading...

Future Game

League:

Teams:

Date:

Time:

Pick:

Bet Type:

Odds:

Picked:

Contests: ,

Full Pick Details

x

Multi Quick View

Loading...

Pick Name
Odds: Odds
Picked: Stamp

x

Quick View

Rank:

Member:

Team:

Wins:

Losses:

Ties:

x

Pregame.com Join Contest

x