Detroit Lions +3.5
The Lions have scored exactly 6 points over the last two weeks. They of course were facing Dallas and New England, two top-10 defenses in the league. Dolphins present a much easier test on that side. They rank 19th overall and 25th against the pass. Swift is coming back as well, and his dynamic playmaking ability is a large factor also. I think we’ll see a Detroit team that closer resembles what we saw earlier in the year on the offensive side. Miami was -7 against the Steelers at home last week. That means they were -4 if you adjusted for home-field edge. Against the Lions they’re listed closer to -6.5 on “neutral field”. Is Pittsburgh 2.5 points better than Detroit? I highly doubt it. I expect the Lions to be highly motivated here after two really poor efforts and I’ll grab the home dog in this one.