2** OVER THE TOTAL NEW YORK GIANTS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Thursday, August 11th / 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT (#105-106)
*Optimum OU line: 33.5 or less points
According to our NFL preseason database, the OVER between the PATRIOTS and GIANTS in Thursday’s Game One action is ‘wager worthy’. We’ll give that selection a middle-of-the-road NFL ‘X’ rating of 2 stars. This non-conference preseason game opened at 33.0 points, and has already been bet up to the number of 34.0. We got OUR action in at 33.5. And that’s where we advise other bettors to get to if you have the ability to shop for the best line. We say that because the number of 34.0 is pretty common in preseason play. There are many common scores that can result in both teams combining for exactly 34 points. Make no mistake, we’ll still stand by this play regardless of where the line finishes once we get to kickoff. But there’s a lot more value when you’re betting OVER 33.5 rather than 34.0.
We already know from writing our article in the Playbook preseason newsletter about New England’s recent OU tendencies when it comes to their home games at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are one of the most consistent home OVER teams in the entire league. Over the last 15 years, New England has gone 19-9 O/U at HOME in the preseason (that’s 68% Overs). The results are even better as of late (7-2 O/U last 9), with a relatively HIGH average of 49.1 combined points per game. These two teams have played each other in the preseason numerous times (19 in the last 21 years!). The SERIES has gone 3-1 O/U in the last four… with a whopping high average of 52.2 combined ppg. The last seven meetings between these two teams IN New England: Average line 37.1… Average combined points 50.5… Average OU margin +13.2 ppg. That’s an OVER average of almost two FULL TD’s and extra points.
Based on the current pointspread and OU line (NYG -2 and 34.0), the predicted final score in this game is:
NEW YORK GIANTS 18.0 - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 16.0…. We’re talking two ‘dead’ numbers there. So we’ll need the G-Men to get to 20 points and the Pats to get to 17 for us to cash this sucker. Those numbers are VERY achievable. NEW YORK has averaged 23.5 points per game in their last 13 preseason games… including an even HIGHER 26.8 when playing on the ROAD. NEW ENGLAND has averaged 25.3 ppg in their last 15 preseason games, including an even HIGHER 27.0 ppg at HOME.
From the database:
17-5-1 O/U since 2011: All NFC Conference road favorites of -6 < pts (GIANTS) versus an AFC opponent (PATRIOTS), when the OU line is less than 39.0 points. In the last four seasons, thee games have gone a perfect 5-0 O/U… with an average of 52.5 combined PPG…
7-1 O/U since 2-15: All THURSDAY preseason road favorites of < 6 pts (GIANTS @ PATRIOTS), when the OU line is less than 36.0 points.