Monday, JULY 4TH / 6:40pm ET / 3:40pm PT / #955 New York Mets w/ Walker @ Cincinnati Reds w/ Greene
2** Play on: NEW YORK METS with WALKER
Game One of the METS / REDS series sees stinky Cincinnati (27-51) staying at home to take on the best team in the National League East Division. New York comes in with a 49-30 record on the year, and is one of the best ROAD teams in all of Major League Baseball this season. The pitching mismatch in this one is as good as it gets, and is easily the most one-sided affair of the entire July 4th MLB schedule. Not to mention the clear mismatch when it comes to an offensive comparison as well. What else would you call a game between the #4 offense on the league (Mets) versus the #30 offense (Reds)?
From a current TEAM TREND standpoint, it doesn’t get much better. We already know the METS are one of the better teams in the league in the FIRST game of a series. New York is 21-6 in their last 27 GAME ONES of a series, and they love bringing home the bacon on MONDAYS (5-0 last 5). They do their best damage on offense against BAD starting pitchers (12-2 vs starters with a WHIP of > 1.30), and Reds rookie Hunter Greene certainly qualifies (3-12 TY / 5.72). He’s off a month of June in which he went 1-5. And in his last three starts, the ERA has BALLOONED all the way up to 8.35. Yes, Greene has some talent. But he’s still on the wild side in terms of his current Walk rate… and that doesn’t pair well with one of the WORST ‘home runs per 9 innings’ rates in all of baseball. To top it all off, the Great American Ballpark has been a ‘House of Horrors’ as of late for the Reds, as they have now gone 3-13 in their last 16 home games.
On the flip side, everything’s been working as of late for Mets right-hander Taijuan Walker (6-2 thus year / 2.72 ERA). He’s on a current hot roll, with 4 STRAIGHT Quality Starts in a row…. and a great microscopic ERA of only 1.73. He just stymied the hot-hitting Astros in his last start, holding ‘em to ZERO runs in 7 innings pitched. Health has always been a bigger issue than ability for Walker, and he’s in PRIME full strength heading into tonight’s contest.
The Reds have pretty much been the Mets’ ‘bitches’ as of late. NEW YORK has gone 33-14 in their last 47 games very the Reds… including 17-6 in the last 23 gamed IN ‘The Queen City’. If laying -150 to -160 on the road is a little high for your tastes, then consider the METS on the RUN LINE at .1.5. For us, the play is on NEW YORK at the current money line price.
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