Wednesday, June 29th / 7:45pm ET (4:45pm PT) / #908 Miami Marlins w/ Alcantara @ St Louis Cardinals w/ Pallante
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
*BOX (Specify) Alcantara on the mound for Miami
Tonight’s the final game of the Marlins @ Cardinals series, as Monday’s Game One went OVER while last night’s Game Two went UNDER. We’ll look Go LOW in the finale based on some very good current pitching stats… a historically LOW-scoring series (7-18-2 O/U last 27 meetings)… and a Man in Blue that’s amongst the lowest in the entire Major Leagues. We usually finish our writeups with a paragraph or two about the Umpire. In tonight’s case, we’ll START our analysis with a Man in Blue breakdown.
Scheduled to work tonight’s finale behind the dish in St Louis will be CHAD FAIRCHILD. On the surface, he looks like pretty much a middle-of-the-road Umpire with record of 4-6 O/U (60% Unders) on the season. But there’s a lot more to Fairchild than his simple O/U record. Like the fact that despite a 4-6 O/U record, his games have averaged an extremely LOW 6.1 combined runs per game. That’s tied for 2nd LOWEST scoring Umpire out of all 75 full-time guys. #1 is Marty Foster at only 5.8 combined RPG. The tie at #2 is Chad Fairchild (4-6 O/U) and Andy Fletcher (1-11 O/U) at 6.1 combined RPG. So if the 1-11 O/U guys tied with the 4-6 O/U guy at a low 6.1 runs per game, then that tells us that Fairchild’s YTD record should be more like 1-9 O/U or 2-8 O/U. That also means a few games of positive recession are probably in order. With tonight’s OU line in the range of 7.5 to 8.0 runs, it’s comforting to know that only TWO of Fairchild’s 10 games this season have had 8 or more combined runs scored in ‘em. His games in the National League have averaged only 6.8 combined RPG as well.
Moving into the pitching matchup, UNDER bettors will have some degree of comfort knowing that yet will be backing Miami’s BEST pitcher by far. That would be ace Sandy Alcantara. There’s only THREE starting pitchers in all of Baseball that have year-to-date ERA of less than 2.00 on the year. And Alcantara is one of ‘em (the other two are Gonsolin of LAD and McClanahan of TB). Full season numbers for the Marlin’s ace currently show him with an ERA of just 1.95. We’re also getting him at his BEST when it comes to Day / Night ’splits’. Alcantara DAY starts TY: 4-1 O/U… Alcantara NIGHT starts TY: 2-7 O/U record with an even lower ERA of 1.70. And here’s the clincher when it comes to facing his OLD team (yes, he started his career with the Redbirds). In four career starts vs the Cardinals, Alcantara has gone a PERFECT 0-4 O/U… with an ERA of only 0.98! That includes an earlier start this season where he went 8 innings… allowed only 4 hits… and 0 runs. Against St Louis’ top two hitters, here are Alcantara’s numbers: Nolan Arenado is 1-10 lifetime (.100) with 4 K’s… and Paul Goldschmidt is 2-12 lifetime with 4 K’s. On the flip side, we’ll be backing a solid Cardinals rookie pitcher in Andre Pallante… who made the move from bullpen to starter in May… and has now hone 5 innings or more in three straight starts. Even more impressive for Pallante is his tear-to-date ERA, which now stands at a great 2.03. He’s made only two starts at home, and BOTH of ‘em went Under the Total. His ERA in night game is a full run-per-game LESS than in his day games (1.67 vs 2.76).