Drew Smeltzer has struggled over his L3 starts with an ERA over 6 and 1.67 WHIP and Zach Plesac hasn’t been great on the road with a ERA over 5. When you throw in the fact that the Twins have been one of the best lineups this season (top 10 or better in wOBA & wRC+ over L14 days) I think they could score 5 or more runs by themselves. Both pitchers have a higher FIP than their ERAs so I think a combination of below average pitchers with above average lineups makes for a great spot to play the over.