I think there’s a lot of value in this spot on Arizona as they’ve played 7 teams .500 or better over their last 10 while the Reds only played 3 teams .500 or better over their last 10 and Arizona went 4-6 while Cincinnati went 5-5. Madison Bumgarner has been solid with a 3.31 ERA (3.52 ERA on the road) and Arizona has a winning record in his 5 road starts (3-2) and they give him 5.2 runs of runs support and Cincinnati is only 5-10 against left handed starters with the 9th worst wOBA and 3rd worst wRC+ against lefties. Hunter Greene gets the start for Cincinnati and he’s been awful with a 2-7 record (Reds 2-8 in his starts) and a 6.19 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP (6.59 ERA and 7.17 FIP at home). The Reds do give him 8.7 runs of run support in his 3 starts at home but that’s juiced up because of the 20-5 win over the Cubs but if you take that outlier of a win out they only give him 3 runs of runs support in 2 starts at home. Over his last 3 starts he’s given up 5 runs or more twice and Arizona has given Bumgarner 5 runs of run support on average in his 5 road starts.