3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS @ DALLAS MAVERICKS
Tuesday, May 24th / 9:00pm ET (6:00pm PT) / #567-568
DESPERATION…. That’s the one word that best describes the DALLAS MAVERICKS heading into tonight’s Game Four of the Western Conference Finals against the Golden State Warriors. Desperation… as in a ‘3-games-to-ZERO’ hole. Obviously, that is by far the most significant aspect of tonight’s Game Four in Big D. So that aspect will be the HIGHLIGHT of our database querying in the search for a potential OU winner. And the numbers are so good for an OVER tonight that we have the ‘ammo’ to certainly justify a move into BEST BET territory for us. With that said, we won’t bury the lead. Let’s head right to the database and check out how DESPERATE teams perform who are on the verge of being eliminated from post-season play. (1) NBA Playoff GAME FOUR non-division teams who are down 3-games-to-0 in a series (DALLAS vs GOLDEN STATE) have gone 19-5 O/U (79% Overs) when the OU line is 207 or more points (tonight’s line is 215.5). The results improve to 13-2 O/U (87% Overs) in ROUNDS 2, 3, or 4 of the Playoffs. And since 2015, this situation has actually improved to 90% OVERS (9-1 O/U). Average OU line in these games: 216.8… Average combined points scored: 229.3… Average OU margin: +12.5 ppg. So a sharp bettor can obviously see that the OVER is the way to go this evening. That’s certainly enough for a normal play. But we’ve got enough additional database material to signal an escalation into 3*** BEST BET territory.
(2) In the ‘3.4 game SPECIFICALLY (Round 3 / Game 4), the results have been: 15-1 O/U since 2009 in the ‘3.4’ game when (a) the previous game went UNDER… (b) the pointspread in this game is less than 9 points… and (c) the OU line is in the range of > 182 and < 22 points (WARRIORS @ MAVERICKS). That’s 15 OVERS… and only ONE Under!
(3) Golden State’s offense has been pretty damn consistent as of late. In fact, they’ve scored 109 pts… 126 pts… 112 pts… and 110 pts in their last four Playoff games. 9-1-1 O/U last 5 years: All Playoff GAME FOUR non-division road teams who scored 108 > pts in EACH of their last four games (WARRIORS), when the OU line is < 227 points.
(4) Our final ‘Game Specific’ database query has us looking at the OU evolution of this series thus far. Game One went UNDER… Game Two went OVER… and Game Three went UNDER. 6-0 O/U since 2012: All Playoff HOME teams (MAVERICKS) in GAME FOUR of ROUNDS 2, 3, or 4 off an UNDER… OVER… and UNDER in the last three games, when the OU line is < 227 points.
(5) With the Warriors on a current 4-game winning streak: 14-2 O/U since 2010: All Western Conference Playoff teams off 4 or more SU and ATS Playoff wins (WARRIORS) when the OU line is in the range of > 186 and < 216 points.
(6) Golden State won Sunday’s Game Three as an underdog by the score of 109 to 100. 9-1 O/U last 5 years: All Playoff road teams off a SU Playoff road DOG win of 8 or more points (WARRIORS), when the OU line is 195 or more points.
(7) Another ‘DESPERATION’ query: 8-1-1 O/U since 2017: All non-division HOME Playoff teams off 3 SUATS Playoff losses (MAVERICKS), when the OU line is 207 > points.
(8) Dallas failed to cover the spread at home in Sunday’s Game by -12 points (were favored by -3 / lost by -9 points). 7-0 O/U since 2007: All Playoff ROUND 3 or 4 teams with a .640 < winning percentage off a double-digit ATS home loss (MAVERICKS).
(9) Dallas’ offense has been all over the place as of late. In their last four games, they have scored 100 pts… 117 pts… 87 pts… and 123 pts. 7-0 O/U since 1993: All Playoff teams who scored 100 < pts… 115 > pts… 100 < pts… and 115 > pts in their last four games (MAVERICKS).
Even after Sunday’s low-scoring game between these two teams, the last 10 games played between the WARRIORS and MAVERICKS in Dallas have averaged 233.7 combined points per game.