2** BOSTON CELTICS minus the points vs Miami Heat
Monday, May 23rd / 8:30pm ET (5:30pm PT)
Off a shocking Game Three loss on Saturday, tonight is the perfect time to ride the host CELTICS... in Monday’s Game Four against the Heat. In the last 15 seasons, the CELTICS have gone 25-8-1 ATS as Playoff FAVS off a SU loss in their last game. That includes 14-2 ATS when they’re laying 4 or MORE points (like tonight). Sharp bettors will usually go AGAINST teams who pulled off a shocking dog win in their last Playoff game. (1) 2-14 ATS since 2017: All Playoff underdogs of 7 < pts off a Playoff road win of 5 or more points in a game in which they were UNDERDOGS of +5 or more points (Miami won Game Three 109-103 as dogs of + 5 points)… In that Saturday win for Miami, the game also went OVER the Total. (2) In the last two years, NBA Playoff teams off a Playoff ROAD dog win that also went OVER the Total (Miami) have gone 1-10 ATS when the OU line is 220 or less points… In this series, Miami won Game One, lost Game Two, and won Game Three. (3) 1-9 ATS since 2002: All NBA Playoff GAME FOUR road underdogs off a SU win… SU loss… and SU win in the last three Playoff games (Heat)… When we were searching for a potential OU Play in tonight’s game, we ran a database query based on the fact that this series has gone OVER the Total in each of the first three games. Noting jumped out at us in terns of an OU play, but an interested ATS angle was revealed: (4) Since 2014, NBA Playoff non-division home favorites of -7 or less points off 3 straight ‘OVERS’ in a row (BOSTON) have gone 17-4-1 ATS (81%). The numbers improve to 8-1-1 ATS (89%) over the last two seasons… In this Eastern Conference series, Boston is the #2 seed team while Miami is the #1 seed team. (5) Since 2001, Eastern Conference #2 SEED favorites of > 1 pt and < 8 pts (CELTICS) have gone and amazing 16-2 ATS (89%) versus any #1 SEED same-conference opponent (Miami)… This has been a great Day of the Week for LAYING the points in the NBA postseason. (6) 16-2 ATS since 2016 / 10-1 ATS last 5 years: All NBA Playoff MONDAY home favorites of -3 or more points (BOSTON) in ROUNDS 1, 2, or 3.
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