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Pro Pick From
King Creole

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2022-05-23T01:03:00.000Z 2022-05-23T01:03:00.000Z - NBA

563 Golden State Warriors
vs.
564 Dallas Mavericks

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

05/22/2022

NBA Sides

Mavericks

100-109

-2½

2

L

-220

Analysis
Game Three / Western Conference Finals / May 22nd / 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT 
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks 
2** Play on: DALLAS MAVERICKS minus the points 

The host Mavericks are behind the eight-ball as the Western Conference Finals switch to Dallas for Sunday’s Game Three. Golden State already has a 2-0 series lead, and all the pressure is on the Mavs. It looks like most sharp handicappers are in agreement when it comes to this game, and that means a wager on the host. Unlike some handicappers who put up a whole three sentences and call THAT a writeup, we tend to do a little more work. And all of our database querying in regards to this game is indeed pointing in the direction of ‘BIG D’. Its almost a case of deja vu for the Mavericks, who were in a similar situation in their previous series against Phoenix. In that Round 2 series, the Mavs went down BIG in Games 1 and 2, losing to Phoenix 121-114 and 129-109. They cane back strong at home in Game Three, winning 103 to 94. That victory kick started a 4-wins-in-5-games comeback that propelled the Mavs to this current round. Well lay the points on Sunday, confidently knowing that DALLAS has already gone 5-1 ATS at home in the post-season thus far, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in Games 2 or later of a series. They’ve also gone a perfect 8-0 ATS on SUNDAYS since January against all non-division opponents. Meanwhile, the Warriors have already gone 1-4 ATS in all Playoff ROAD games this season… 1-5 ATS in SUDNAY Playoff games in the last 4 years… and 1-8 ATS as pure road underdogs of +6 or less points since January. 

Our first query out of the database has us looking DIRECTLY at this particular game of the post-season. The 3rd game of the 3rd round of the Playoffs is classified as the ‘3.3’ game. 
(1) 21-4-1 ATS since 1991: All NBA Playoff ‘3.3’ teams off a SU LOSS of 9 or more points in Game Two (DALLAS). These teams have gone 12-1 ATS as FAVORITES… including a PERFECT 8-0 ATS since 2004. So that’s our big situation that’s pointing to the favored Mavericks tonight. 

And two more queries for ALL Game Three’s… 
(2) 10-1 ATS since 2002: All NBA Playoff #4 SEED non-division favorites in any GAME THREE in a ‘1/1’ REST situation (both teams ONE day of rest), off back-to-back SU and ATS losses in Games 1 and 2 (DALLAS)… 
(3) 8-0 ATS since 2012: All NBA Playoff GAME THREE non-division teams who scored 110 > pts and < 90 pts in the first two games of the series (DALLAS), when the OU line is 220 or less points. 

In Friday’s Game two, the final score was Golden State 126 - Dallas 117. 
(4) 8-0-2 AT since 1900: All NBA Playoff non-division home teams off a SUATS Playoff DOG loss in which they scored AND allowed 110 or more points (DALLAS). 
(5) 1-11 ATS since 2007: All NBA Playoff non-division road dogs off a SUATS Playoff FAV win in which they scored 125 or more points (Golden State). 

Golden State has covered three straight games in a row as a mid-to-high favorite. 
(6) 2-12 ATS since 2009 / 0-8 ATS since 2014: All NBA Playoff road or neutral site teams off 3 or more SUATS Playoff wins in which they were FAVORED by -5 or more points (Golden State), when the OU line is < 225 points. 

We’ll wrap it up with a look at the Day of the Week. 
(7) 7-0 ATS since 2015: All SUNDAY Playoff home favorites off a SU loss (DALLAS), when the OU Lime is 213 or more points. 

*We’d also advise a play on Dallas in the FIRST-HALF of this game. You can get ‘em at -130 on the money line… or -2 pts on the spread.
Pick Creation Time:
05/22/2022 8:53 AM
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