Friday, May 20th / 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT / #647-648 / Game Two / Western Conference Finals Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors
2** Play on: DALLAS MAVERICKS plus the points
We’re doing DOUBLE-DUTY on Friday Night in the NBA Playoffs, as the Western Conference Finals (Round 3) moves to Game Two. Our Totals Play is another ticket. As far as the SIDE goes, well be joining most of the sharps on the underdog MAVERICKS. Definitely a team that we want to back, given their most recent ATS tendencies in ANY Game Two of the Playoffs (12-2 ATS as non-division dogs in ANY Game Two, including 7-1 ATS since 2011). In their Playoff history, Dallas has gone 11-2 ATS off any BIG Playoff loss of 20 or more points, including a PERFECT 5-0 ATS when playing on the road. And let’s not forget the Warriors either. GOLDEN STATE has gone a PERFECT 0-5 ATS over the last five years at HOME after a BIG Playoff win of 20 or more points.
Speaking of horrific Playoff losses of 20 or more points, let’s head to the database.
(1) Since 2005, NBA Playoff Western Conference GAME TWO non-division underdogs (DALLAS) have gone an almost-perfect 10-1 ATS off a Game One LOSS of 20 or more points.
And as mentioned above, Dallas was held to only 87 points in the Wednesday night loss to the Warriors.
(2) 19-5 ATS since 1002: All Western Conference road underdogs off a Playoff road LOSS in which they SCORED 90 or less points (MAVERICKS), when the OU lime is 185 or more points.
Golden State is the #3 seed team in the Western Conference.
(3) 2-19 ATS since 1995: All NBA Playoff #3 SEED favorites of > 1 pt in ROUNDS 2 or 3 off a SU Playoff win (Golden State).
The Warriors scored 112 and 110 points at home in their last two Playoff games, which puts them in a rare but unappealing ATS situation.
Playoff home favs of > 3 pts have gone a perfect 0-5 ATS since 1992 off back-to-back home games in which they scored 100 > pts each (Warriors).
A look at the Day of the Week tendencies also gives us a confidence boost tonight.
(5) 5-21 ATS since 1992: All NBA Playoff non-division favorites on FRIDAYS off a SU win (Golden State), when the OU line is 195 or more points.