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Pro Pick From
King Creole

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2022-05-20T00:45:00.000Z 2022-05-20T00:45:00.000Z - NBA

543 Boston Celtics
vs.
544 Miami Heat

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

05/19/2022

NBA Sides

Heat

102-127

-3½

2

L

-220

Analysis

Thursday, May 19th / Game Two / Eastern Conference Finals 
8:30pm ET / 5:30pm PT / #543-544 
BOSTON CELTICS @ MIAMI HEAT 
2** Play on: MIAMI HEAT minus the points 

Thanks to all sharp TOTALS bettors who joined us on Tuesday Night in GAME ONE of the HEAT / CELTICS series. It was an ‘Over-EASY’ winner as we cashed it by +21 points.The OU line was 203.5, and the final score was 118 to 107. We’re back on Thursday for Game Two down here in hot South Florida. However, we will be PASSING on the TOTAL… because of conflicting numbers in our database. Instead, we’ll come out firing with a 3*** SIDE PLAY… based on some killer ATS situations from our database. It also doesn’t hurt us that we will be betting on the ULTIMATE ‘chalky’ team of the post-season. That would be the Miami Heat, who have put up ‘unglublich’ (unreal) numbers when favored in the Playoffs. Dating all the way back to 2013 (ten years), the HEAT have gone amazing 24-5 ATS (83%) when FAVORED at home or on neutral sites. And since 2016, the numbers are even BETTER for Miami (13-1 ATS / 93%!). To top it all off check out Miami’s results in ANY Playoff GAME TWO (in any round): 12-1 ATS since 2014… including a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing off a WIN in their last game. So we got THAT going for us on Thursday. 

Our first database query looks at all Playoff GAME TWO teams who also won in Game One like the Heat). 12-1 ATS since 2016: All Playoff GAME TWO home favorites of -3 or more points off a Game One WIN that also went OVER the Total (MIAMI). 

The host Heat are the #1 seed team in the Eastern Conference. Since 2016, EASTERN CONFERENCE #1 SEED non-division home favorites of -7 < pts (MIAMI) have gone 11-1 ATS… 

Meanwhile, the traveling Celtics are the #2 seed team in the Eastern Conference… Since 2015, NBA Playoff #2 SEED non-division road underdogs of +3 or more points (Boston) have gone 6-24 ATS (19% ATS). That includes an almost-PERFECT 1-12 ATS (7% ATS) when the OU line in these games is 209 or less points… 

Miami has won their last three Playoff games by margins of +11 pts, +9 pts, and +35 pts… 9-0 ATS since 2007: All Playoff GAME TWO or greater non-division home favorites of -10 or less points off 3 or more Playoff WINS of 9 > pts (MIAMI) versus any < .666 opponent (Boston), when the OU line is 182 or more points… 

After crushing the Bucks by 13 and 17 points in Games Six and Seven in the previous series, the Celtics lost Tuesday’s Game One of this series by 11 points… 1-10 ATS since 2016: All Playoff ROUND 1, 2, or 3 teams off a Playoff LOSS of 10 > pts, and back-to-back Playoff WINS of 10 > pts (Celtics), when the OU line is < 215 points… 

After holding Milwaukee to only 81 points in the Game Seven win on Sunday, the Celtics allowed a massive 118 points on Tuesday’s Game One against Miami… 3-13 ATS since 2007 / 0-7 ATS since 2014: All Playoff road dogs of > 3 pts after allowing 110 > pts and 90 < Pts in each for their last two Playoff games (Celtics)… 

We’ll close out the database querying with a search for any ATS patterns that are relevant on this particular Day of the Week… 10-0 ATS since 2012: All Playoff THURSDAY non-division home favorites < 7 points when playing off back-to-back SU wins (HEAT).
Pick Creation Time:
05/18/2022 11:18 AM
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