Wednesday, May 18th / Game One / Western Conference Finals
9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT / #539-540
DALLAS MAVERICKS @ GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 214.5 or less points
On Wednesday Night in San Francisco, the NBA’s next round of the Playoffs begins in the Western Conference Finals. At 9:00pm ET, it’s the #3 Seed GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS hosting the #4 Seed DALLAS MAVERICKS in Round 3 / Game 1… with the OU line right around 214.5 points. Just like we did in the Eastern Conference, we’ll be playing the OVER in Game One. And we can start right off the bat with a look at the recent OU tendencies of this series. These teams have been involved in quite a large amount of shootouts versus each as of late. The Mavericks / Warriors SERIES has gone 17-7 O/U in the last 24 meetings dating back to 2015. And in the last 16 meetings: 12-4 O/U (75% Overs) in the last five years. What’s particularly appetizing for OVER bettors is the O/U margin. The average line in this series (last 5 years): 221.0… Average combined points: 231.8… Average OU MARGIN: +10.8 points per game! In addition, we’ll be playing both teams in advantageous INDIVIDUAL situations as well. The WARRIORS have gone an OVER-whelming 11-1 O/U (last 4 years) as PLAYOFF favorites of -7 or less points when the OU line is 225 or less. These Playoff games have averaged a nice 228.8 combined ppg. On the flip side, the MAVERICKS have gone 10-3-1 O/U (77% Overs) as Playoff road or neutral site underdogs when the OU line is < 238 points.
We won’t bury the lead when it comes to our trusted database. I mentioned this extremely important and relevant ’Rest Aspect’ in last night’s play… and it also applies to the Mavericks in Wednesday’s Game One. The fact that Dallas went all the way to a 7th game in their previous Playoff series is a great sign for an OVER against the Warriors. NBA Playoff teams who scored 105 or more points in a GAME SEVEN win (MAVERICKS) have gone 22-2 O/U in their next Playoff game over the last 25 years. That includes a perfect 7-0 O/U in the last six seasons (with Tuesday’s Celtics @ Heat game still pending).
Phoenix was the Western Conference’s #1 seed…
10-2 O/U since 2102: All NBA Playoff GAME ONE teams who ELIMINATED a #1 seed opponent in the Playoffs in their last game (MAVERICKS).
The 1st game of the 3rd round of the postseason is classified as the ‘3.1’ game in our database.
12-2 O/U since 2010 / 8-1 O/U since 2013 / 4-0 O/U since 2016: All NBA Playoff ‘3.1’ favorites of > 1 pt (WARRIORS vs MAVS), when the OU line is in the range of 179 - 217 points.
12-2 O/U since 2000: All NBA Playoff WESTERN CONFERENCE favs of -7 < pts in the ‘3.1’ game (WARRIORS), when the OU line is less than 220 points.
As mentioned above, Golden State is the #3 seed team in the Western Conference while Dallas is the #2 seed.
NBA Playoff #3 SEED non-division home or neutral favs of -6 or less points (GOLDEN STATE) have gone 15-3 O/U since 2015 when the OU line is in the range of 195 to 216 points…
NBA Playoff #4 SEED road underdogs (DALLAS) have gone 25-7-1 O/U since 2015 when the OU line is < 220 points. Our numbers improve to 16-3-1 O/U (84% Overs) in ROUNDS 2, 3, or 4…