8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT / #527-528
205.0
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns
3*** Best Bet on: UNDER the TOTAL
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On Sunday in the NBA Playoffs, its not one… but TWO Game Sevens as we compete the 2nd round of the 2022 post-season. At 12:30pm PT, its Game Seven of the Celtics / Bucks series. And at 5:00pm PT, its Game Seven of the Mavericks / Suns series. By now, ALL sharp OVER / UNDER bettors know ‘what the score is’ when it comes to ANY Game Seven in the Playoffs. The sharp money is just about always going to be on the UNDER. And to play it smart, we’ll be Going LOW in BOTH games. But we’ll be betting more on the Dallas / Phoenix UNDER than in the Milwaukee / Boston game. We’ve got enough database ‘ammo’ to justify a higher rating in the Suns / Mavs game. With that said, we won’t bury the lead. Here are the numbers for ALL NBA Playoff Game Sevens since the 2003 season.
Dating back 18 years, All NBA Playoff GAME SEVENS have gone UNDER the TOTAL 64% of the time. The official results are 21-37 O/U. A 64% UNDER percentage over a 18-year period is pretty damn strong. And it definitely suggests that we Go Low in BOTH games. But there’s some interesting OU tidbits within that 21-37 O/U record. For instance, our numbers improve to 8-23 O/U if we ELIMINATE All ROUND ONE games from our query. So that’s 74% UNDERS in Rounds 2, 3, or 4. from her, we break things down by Conference. EASTERN CONFERENCE favorites in this particular game (Boston vs Milwaukee) have gone 5-11 O/U overall. But WESTERN CONFERENCE favorites in this game (Phoenix vs Dallas) have gone 3-12 O/U since 2003… 1-9 O/U since 2008… and a PERFECT 0-6 O/U over the last seven years. In that last ‘set’ (0-6 O/U), the average combined points in these Western Conference games has been just 195.1… and the average margin has been a whopping -18.9 points per game. So you can see from this query WHY we ranked the Mavs @ Suns UNDER a little higher than the Bucks @ Celtics UNDER. Not to mention the fact that this Mavs / Suns SERIES has now gone UNDER in four straight games in a row (average margin: -14.8 ppg). That’s certainly justification for the linesmakers to move this OU line as low as they have (210.5 in Game 6 / 205 in Game 7).
Here’s a little more OU AMMO behind the 3*** BEST BET. First off, since we’re on the topic of 4 STRAIGHT ‘Unders’ in a row. (1) In the last three years, All Playoff favorites of > 3 pts off 4 or more UNDERS in a row (Suns vs Mavs) have gone 1-9 O/U (90% Unders).
With Phoenix the highest-rated team in the Western Conference, we note that: (2) #1 SEED teams in ANY Game Seven (Suns) have gone 2-10 O/U since in the last 12 years…
This Western Conference series has had quite the contrast. In fact, there’s been virtually ZERO close games. Average winning margin has been an amazing +17.2 points per game. Dallas just covered the spread in Game Six by +29.5 points after Phoenix covered Game Five by +23.0 points. (3) 0-8 O/U since 1990: All Playoff teams off a Playoff ATS WIN of +20 > pts and a Playoff ATS LOSS of -20 > pts (Mavericks), when the OU line is > 190 and < 220 points.
Phoenix scored 110 points in Game Five, but only 86 points in Game Six. (4) 2-10 O/U since 2008 / 0-4 O/U last 5 years: All Western Conference Playoff teams who scored < 90 pts and 110 > pts in each of their last two Playoff games (Suns).
On the flip side, Dallas scored only 80 points win Game Five, but came back to score 113 points in Game Six. (5) 0-6 O/U since 2016: All Playoff underdogs who scored 110 > pts and < 90 pts in each of their last two Playoff games (Mavericks), when the OU line is < 216 points.
Quite the roller coaster: Phoenix won Game Five by 30 points and then lost Game Six by 27 points. (6) 1-10 O/U since 2004: All Playoff home favs off a Playoff LOSS of 15+ pts and a Playoff WIN of 15+ pts (Phoenix), when the OU line is < 219 points.
To seal the deal, our database points out that this has been a GREAT Day of the Week to GO LOW in NBA Playoff games… particularly in the last few games of a series. Since 1992, NBA Playoff games on SUNDAYS have gone a PERFECT 0-12 O/U in ROUNDS 2, 3, or 4… in GAMES 5, 6, or 7… when the OU Line is 195 pr more points. So that 0-12 O/U query applies to BOTH of Sunday’s games.