Monday, Jan. 24th / #508-510 9:10pm ET / 6:10pm PT
Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL
Monday’s Game of the Day in Pro Basketball features two of the top teams in the Western Conference… as the 36-9 Phoenix Suns host the 30-17 Utah Jazz. Obviously, if you watched yesterday’s Utah @ Golden State game… you already know that the Jazz are now in a mid-season funk… as they lost to the Warriors in a very LOW-scoring game (UNDER cashed by -32 points!). Not only that, but neither team will be playing with a full deck tonight when it comes to impactful offensive players For Utah, #1 scorer Donovan Mitchell will be OUT tonight (concussion). #2 scorer Bogdan Bogdanovich suffered a bruised knee in last night’s contest, and will be questionable or a game-time decision tonight. AND… There’s also a chance that #3 scorer Rudy Gobert will nor play either, as he suffered a calf strain in last night’s game. On a back-to-backer, it’s gonna be really tough to see where all the Utah points are going to come from. On the flip side, the host Suns are experiencing some injuries of their own. Deandre Ayton is still doubtful with his knee injury. Jae Crowder and Cameron Payne will also be out with wrist injuries. Phoenix will have to reach deep into their bench to compensate. With so many injuries for both teams, it’s no surprise that (a) UTAH is on a current 4-game UNDER streak (with average margin of -18.5 ppg) … and (b) PHOENIX has gone 1-5 O/U in their last six games, including UNDERS in each of their last three.
Both of these teams are amongst the best in the league. Phoenix has a YTD winning percentage of .800 while Utah has a YTD winning percentage of .638. So a matchup of two of the best teams in the league leads us to our first database query. And it’s a good one. Already THIS season, NBA games involving TWO > .600 teams (Suns + Jazz) have gone 6-20-1 O?U when (a) the home team is favored (Phoenix -9)… and (b) the OU line is > 215 points. For a ‘tightener;, we note that the results improve to 2-15-1 O/U (88% Unders) when the OU line is greater than (>) 219 points (tonight’s line: 221 as of this writing).
Golden State just played last night and Phoenix’s last game was on Saturday. So we’re taking a ‘1/0’ REST situation for tonight’s contest. In the last two seasons, WESTERN CONFERENCE home favorites in a ‘1/0’ REST situation (Suns vs Jazz) have gone 7-23-1 O/U (77% Unders) when the OU line is 220 or more points.
Phoenix has won two games in a row, and both of ‘em went UNDER the Total (vs Indiana and vs Dallas). In the last four weeks of play, Non-Division home favorites off BB SU wins that BOTH went UNDER the Total (Suns) haver gone a perfect 0-8 O/U…
In last night’s game against the Warriors, Utah ‘bottomed out’ with only 92 total points scored. 1-7 O/U last 2 months: All NBA teams who scored 92 our LESS points on the ROAD in their last game (Jazz).
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