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(At current odds)

2021-12-04T20:30:00.000Z 2021-12-04T20:30:00.000Z - College Football

311 Appalachian St Mountaineers
vs.
312 UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

12/04/2021

CFB Totals

UN APP/ULLAF

24-16

53½

2

W

200

Analysis

Saturday, Dec. 4th / 3:30pm ET / 12:30pm PT / #311-312 
Sunbelt Conference Championship game 
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns 
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL 
*Optimum OU line: 53 or more points 

We covered this game extensively in this week’s ‘Against the Spread’ PODCAST with Marc Lawrence. At that time, I had a slight opinion on the UNDER. With the advantage of a couple of extra days of additional handicapping, we’ve got enough ‘ammo’ to make it a normal 3* Play on our King Creole gameday service. Hats off to Billy Napier and his Cajun bunch. After four seasons of great football in the Sunbelt (plus 3 Conference Championship games and 4 Bowls), Napier finally got a super job in the Big 5 conferences. He’ll be taking over as the #1 guy at Florida in a few days. BUT FIRST… Napier is staying in Cajun Country this weekend to coach his last game EVER at UL-Lafayette. The Conference Championship versus Appalachian State. Napier’s influence on this team has actually been on DEFENSE. In the 4-year period under Napier, the Cajuns went from allowing 34.0 ppg… to 22.0 ppg… to 20.0 ppg… to this year’s mark of only 18.5 ppg. And in the last FIVE games, the defense has allowed only 13.5 ppg! The Ragin’ Cajuns have been one of the best UNDER teams in all of College Football this season. Overall, they’ve gone 3-9 O/U… with an average margin of -6.2 ppg. They’ve been even BETTER at home (1-5 O/U / 48.0 combined ppg). Based on the current spread and OU line, the predicted score in this game is: Appalachian State 28.0 - UL-Lafayette 25.0. I’m not buying it. The Cajuns have allowed only ONE conference team to score OVER 21 points all season long. On the flip side, we’re getting ANOTHER great defense in the Mountaineers. In fact, these two teams are the Top 2 defense teams in the entire Sunbelt Conference. Like their counterparts, App State is allowing only 18.9 ppg on the year. That’s not a surprise. This team has been strong on D for five straight seasons now. In EACH of the last five years, the Mountaineers have allowed 20.0 or LESS ppg. And ALSO like their counterparts, App State’s defensive dominance has been better as of late. In their last four games, they have allowed only 14 points… 7 points… 7 points… and 3 points (last week’s 27-3 win over Geo Southern / only 200 total yards allowed). Appalachian State finished the year on a 1-4 O/U run in their final four games (average margin: -10.7 ppg!). In this year’s earlier meeting (at Boone, NC), the OU line was 57.5 points. The Cajuns pulled off the upset, winning 41-13 (UNDER). That result makes it 2-8 O/U in the last 10 meetings between these two opponents (only 48.6 combined PPG). The last SIX meetings have gone 1-5 O/U. We can already tell that SHARP money is on our side. While 55-50% of all overall BETS are on the UNDER… 80-85% of all CASH is also on that side. That’s ‘Whale Money’…
Pick Creation Time:
12/02/2021 11:32 AM
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