Miami Dolphins +3.5
This line
opened at -5.5 LVR and with 75% of the bets on them, the number dropped a full
2-points. Now that’s some Reverse Line
Movement (RLM) effect. With Tua Tagovailoa
going on IR, Jacoby Brissett will be the starter in this one. Remember, Brissett was a starter at Indianapolis
for majority of both 2017 (59% C%; 6.6 PY/A; 13-7 TD/INT ratio) and 2019 (61%
C%; 6.6 PY/A; 18-6 TD/INT ratio) seasons.
He’s a game-manager type and won’t ‘wow anyone’, but knows how to play
the game. And with Will Fuller coming
back in this one, Brissett will have the full supporting cast in play – Fuller,
Parker, Waddle, Gaskin, and Gesicki. And
in all honesty, this could be an improvement, as Tagovailoa ranks dead last in
QBR in the NFL. Miami is coming off a
35-0 shellacking at Buffalo, and typically teams with ‘playoff aspirations’
such as this one, should be expected to bounce back and step up their level of
effort. Vegas, on the other hand, is the
surprise team of the season so far. They’re
2-0 after beating both Baltimore and Pittsburgh to start out the season. This is an interesting spot though, as they’re
coming off a huge upset win @ PIT, only to travel to LA to face the Chargers on
Monday night next week. This week’s game
against Miami is a typical ‘sandwich’ spot.
And after two upset wins to start out the year, one can’t help but think
that Vegas is a tad overrated as well.
The off-season line was PK for this game and the look-ahead number was
-1 LVR (that’s preceding the prior-mentioned shellacking the ‘Fins experienced
in Buffalo). Dolphins have a strong
pass-D and a potentially rejuvenated offense coming into this one. I think this RLM makes a lot of sense as this
is a strong situational spot for the underdog.