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Pro Pick From
VegasButcher

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(At current odds)

2021-09-26T20:05:00.000Z 2021-09-26T20:05:00.000Z - NFL

487 Miami Dolphins
vs.
488 Las Vegas Raiders

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

09/26/2021

NFL Sides

Dolphins

28-31

+3½

3

W

300

Analysis
Miami Dolphins +3.5

This line opened at -5.5 LVR and with 75% of the bets on them, the number dropped a full 2-points.  Now that’s some Reverse Line Movement (RLM) effect.  With Tua Tagovailoa going on IR, Jacoby Brissett will be the starter in this one.  Remember, Brissett was a starter at Indianapolis for majority of both 2017 (59% C%; 6.6 PY/A; 13-7 TD/INT ratio) and 2019 (61% C%; 6.6 PY/A; 18-6 TD/INT ratio) seasons.  He’s a game-manager type and won’t ‘wow anyone’, but knows how to play the game.  And with Will Fuller coming back in this one, Brissett will have the full supporting cast in play – Fuller, Parker, Waddle, Gaskin, and Gesicki.  And in all honesty, this could be an improvement, as Tagovailoa ranks dead last in QBR in the NFL.  Miami is coming off a 35-0 shellacking at Buffalo, and typically teams with ‘playoff aspirations’ such as this one, should be expected to bounce back and step up their level of effort.  Vegas, on the other hand, is the surprise team of the season so far.  They’re 2-0 after beating both Baltimore and Pittsburgh to start out the season.  This is an interesting spot though, as they’re coming off a huge upset win @ PIT, only to travel to LA to face the Chargers on Monday night next week.  This week’s game against Miami is a typical ‘sandwich’ spot.  And after two upset wins to start out the year, one can’t help but think that Vegas is a tad overrated as well.  The off-season line was PK for this game and the look-ahead number was -1 LVR (that’s preceding the prior-mentioned shellacking the ‘Fins experienced in Buffalo).  Dolphins have a strong pass-D and a potentially rejuvenated offense coming into this one.  I think this RLM makes a lot of sense as this is a strong situational spot for the underdog.    

Pick Creation Time:
09/25/2021 6:11 PM
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