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Pro Pick From
Ben Burns

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(At current odds)

2021-09-17T23:10:00.000Z 2021-09-17T23:10:00.000Z - MLB

953 Philadelphia Phillies
vs.
954 NY Mets

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

09/17/2021

MLB Run Lines

Mets

3-4

+1½-135

2

W

200

Analysis
I'm playing the METS on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Naturally, I respect Wheeler. However, I really like how this one sets up for the Mets. With Philadelphia favored on the moneyline, we're able to get the Mets at a reasonable price on the run-line. In what could well be a close one, that extra +1.5 runs could prove extremely significant. Note that four of Walker's last seven starts have resulted in 1-run losses for the Mets. His last three starts were a 1-run loss against the Yankees, a 1-run loss against the Giants and a blowout win over the Nationals. Overall, Walker has a 3.41 ERA and 1.041 WHIP in 13 starts. Note that those numbers are slightly better than Wheeler's 3.52 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 12 road starts. I like the fact that the Mets had yesterday off while the Phillies were playing the Cubs. Having been beaten up by the Cardinals, the day off came at the right time. The Mets are 18-10 their last 28, when playing with a day off. Expect AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 
Pick Creation Time:
09/17/2021 4:37 AM
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