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2021-04-08T00:10:00.000Z 2021-04-08T00:10:00.000Z - NBA

553 Dallas Mavericks
vs.
554 Houston Rockets

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

04/07/2021

NBA Totals

OV DAL/HOU

93-102

222

2

L

-220

Analysis

DALLAS MAVERICKS @ HOUSTON ROCKETS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
#553-554 / 8:10pm ET / 5:10pm PT

In the early months of this calendar year (January thru March), we would have wanted NO PART of a Houston Rockets OVER the TOTAL. And no one would have blamed us as Houston went 9-23-1 O/U from Jan. 1st to the middle of March. In fact, up until recently… the Rockets were the league’s #1 home UNDER team for the entire season (started off 1-12-1 O/U in first 14 home games). But give the Rockets credit for at least SOME improvement on offense side the resumption of play following the All-Star break, and they’ve gone 7-3-1 O/U at home since that time. In fact, they’re now off THREE straight home OVERS in a row. We realize that Houston is still #27 in the league in offensive efficiency, with an average of only 106.4 points per 100 possessions. But in their last six games, those numbers have actually gone UP into the Top 10 in the league (115.1). That’s almost 10 ppg HIGHER than their year-to-date stats. And Dallas is another team that’s improving on offense as of late. Like their counterparts, the Mavericks are also in the Top 10 in that same time span (115.1 pts per 100 possessions). With that said, we realize that the visiting Mavericks are on a current 4-game UNDER streak. When I queried that situation in our database, here’s the first system that came out: (1) 16-2-1 O/U last 4 seasons: All NBA teams off 4 or more SU WINS in a row that ALL went UNDER the Total (MAVERICKS), when the OU line is 230 or less points (9-1 O/U L2Y / 5-0 O/U THIS season)… Dallas is also the ‘chalkiest’ team on today’s NBA schedule. At last look, they were tabbed as big road FAVS of -10.5 to -11 points. (2) 10-1 O/U last 4 years: All Western Conference BIG road favorites of 10 > pts (DALLAS) versus any Conference opponent (HOUSTON), when the OU line is 228 or less points… There is a h-u-g-e line swing for the Mavericks tonight as well. They were just home DOGS of +5.5 pts in their last game (the Monday UPSET win over Utah), and now they are the complete opposite (big road favs). (3) 9-1 O/U ALL-TIME in our database: All NBA road favorites of -6 > pts off a SU home WIN in which they were DOGS of +5 or more points (MAVERICKS)… Up next for Dallas is a Thursday game (tomorrow) against the Milwaukee Bucks. (4) 10-1 O/U last 4 years: All NBA same-DIVISION teams on WEDNESDAYS who also have a game the next day (MAVERICKS), when the OU line is in the range of 209 to 226 points… For the Rockets, they are off their HIGHEST scoring game of the entire season. Two days ago, they took the hot Phoenix Suns right down to the wire, losing at home by the score of 133 to 130. (5) 14-2 O/U last 2 years: All NBA home teams off a SU home LOSS in which they scored AND allowed 125 or more points (ROCKETS), when the OU line is > 213 points…. Houston’s basically had the opposite of Dallas when it comes to OU results as of late. (6) 20-5-1 OU last 3 years: All NBA underdogs of 2 > pts off back-to-back home LOSSES that both went OVER the Total (ROCKETS), when the OU line is in the range of 214 to 230 points. In same-CONFERENCE play, these teams have gone 12-1 O/U…
Pick Creation Time:
04/07/2021 10:41 AM
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