Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz
1* UNDER the TOTAL
#517-518 /
10:05pm ET / 7:05pm PT /
*Optimum OU line: 219 or more points…..
We’re heading down to The Big Easy for our highest rated OU play on the Wednesday schedule. At 8:05pm ET, it’ll be the NEW ORLEANS HORNETS hosting the DETROIT PISTONS. Sharp PU bettors know what they’re getting in the Pelicans. Easily the #1 OVER team in the entire league (21-8-1 O/U). After a slow start (in terms of Totals), New Orleans is once again coning on like gangbusters these days. And any one we can get an OU line in the low 120’s for this team, we’re gonna pounced on the OVER. Tonight’s line is anywhere from 10-15 points lower than the usual Pelican OU line. Since January 1st, NEW ORLEANS has gone an amazing 21-3-1 O/U in their last 25 games. And that improve to 14-1 O/U when the OU line is less tan 227 points. In addition, the Pelicans LOVE to run and against team that just played last night (like the Pistons). NEW ORLEANS has gone 14-1 O/U in their last 15 games versus UNRESTED non-division opponents. On the flip side, Detroit is obviously not an offensive juggernaut. But they have shown signs of high-scoring potential in the right situations… particularly against bad defenses like the Pelicans. Like the 233 total points in their recent game versus Brooklyn. Or the recent home game against this same New Orleans team back on Valentines Day (235 total points). At the very least, we’re playing a Detroit OVER in their best rest situation. In long-tern action, the Pistons have gone e 67% OVER the Total when playing with No Rest. While we are on that particular subject, here’s something out of the database to back us up. Detroit just played last night while New Orleans last played on Sunday (2 days of rest). This has been one of our favorite ‘OVER’ rest situations of the last few seasons. NBA games game have 45-22-3 O/U L3Y in a ‘2/0’ REST situation (2 days rest vs NO rest). In the last 12 months, these games have gone 15-3-2 O/U (NEW ORLEANS vs DETROIT). In this same time span: 31-15-2 O/U when the OU line is LESS than (<) 227 points… including amazing 16-1-1 O/U in the last 13 months (NEW ORLEANS vs DETROIT)…… At last look, New Orleans was looking like one of the larger favorites on the Wednesday schedule (-9.5 / 222.5 to 223). Another database query tells us that: NBA big home FAVS of -9 or more points with an OU line of > 215 points (PELICANS vs PISTONS) haver gone 19-4 O/U over the last two seasons. For our two smaller plays (2* San Antonio / Ok City UNDER and 2* La Lakers / Utah Jazz UNDER), we note the following: NBA games in a ‘7+/1’ REST situation have gone a perfect 0-8 O/U since 2014. That’ll be the case in tonight’s Spurs @ Thunder game. San Antonio has not played in 10 freakin’ days because of the Covid. And they will STILL be without a good chunk of their roster this evening (due to health and safety protocols). So we have no sweat making a small play on the UNDER. Particularly against a Thunder team on a current 1-6 O/U run in their last seven games. For the last game (ESPN TV), We are pulling out our ‘great team’ vs ‘great team’ OU set. In that one, we always look to Go LOW in Conference battles between two very good teams. And we’re getting that tonight in the Lakers @ Jazz game. In the last four seasons, same-CONFERENCE games involving two .666 or better teams (like LA and Utah) have gone 21-46-3 O/U (69% Unders). That includes 5-19 O/U 79% Unders) in the last two seasons.