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Punts UNDER 7.5 -120

Russell Wilson OVER 31.5 Rush Yards -120

THURS  AZ at SEA -3, 57.5

LEAN SEA

Power Ratings:  Az 1, Sea 3, P Rating:  SEA -3

LIKE SEA: SITUATION

Sea:  BUYING LOW

          Just last week LA line SEA was -5

What has happened?

          Sea failed ATS vs. rams by 4

          Az failed ATS by 1, AFTER getting a Hail Mary TD

SITUATIONS FAVOR SEA:

And Sea:  REVENGE from the 1^st game for a game that got away:

          Sea had over  a 90% chance to win late in the 4^th quarter.

          Sea lead by 10 late in 4Q. Az kicked a fg with 3:00, Sea committed a penalty extending drive…….Az cut the lead to 3

Then got a stop, and a fg to tie the game.

AND Sea:   Should be FULLY focused on a losing streak:

          0-2 @ Buffalo, @ Rams, and committed 7 turnovers.

Contrast to Az:  Miracle hail Mary,  but have to wheel back for Thurs Game, and Az has over 850 miles travel

          Teams only cover 38% ATS in this spot

1^st Game:  Sea 34 AZ 37

Wilson 33/50 388 7.8 3 TD/3 INT, Sacked 2x, QBR 69

          6 carries, 84 yards

Murray 34/48 360 7.5 3TD/1INT, Sacked 0x, QBR 59

          14 carries, 67 yards

Lockett 15/200, Metcalf 2/23

Hopkins 10/103

Sea: Bad spots last 2 weeks:

          @ Buf (in a big divisional sandwich)

                   Had just played @Az, SF and had @Rams next

          Then caught the Rams off their bye, Rams were  refocused

                   And it was Sea’s 3^rd road trip in 4 weeks

Sea: Pete Carroll emphasizing ball security:

          -4 T/o vs. Buffalo…. 4 t o

          -2 T/o vs. Rams….. 3  t o

TREND:  Sea 12-2-1 ATS off consecutive losses under Carroll

 

 

 

 

 

Injuries: SEA RBs Carson, Homer DOUBTFUL

Sea CBS Griffen (64), Dunbar (48) OUT, Sea C Pocic G Simmons OUT

Az:  DL injuries:

          DE Jordan Phillips OUT PFF 54

          DT Corey Peters OUT 63

          DT Liki Fotu OUT 37

          DE Zach Allen OUT 51

                   All these injuries  in November…

PROPP Russell Wilson OVER 31.5 rush yards:

1^st meeting   

10/25 6/84

Game: Sense of urgency likely will lead to more Rushes

          YTD Wilson averaging 36/gm

          But I expect him to be more aggressive in a crucial game

          Especially vs. a suspect Az Run Defense with injuries on the DL

           

          AZ:  YTD:   giving up 4.5 yards/rush (22^nd in NFL)

                   Last 3 games: Giving up 5.0 yards/rush

 

With a total of 57 I expect few 4th downs, AND I expect both coaches to go for it liberally on 4th and short tonight.......minimizing punts

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