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2020-10-25T17:00:00.000Z 2020-10-25T17:00:00.000Z - NFL

461 Carolina Panthers
vs.
462 New Orleans Saints

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/25/2020

NFL Sides

Panthers

24-27

+7½

2

W

200

Analysis

 

1st game CIN 30 Clev 35

LIKE CLEV

Cin “Phony” Cover

Cin 4.0 yards/play, Clev 7.5

Clev ran all over them

35 rushes for 215 yards (6.1)

Mayfield health?

Banged up Ribs in Indy Game

Got beat up by Pit……benched in 4th Qutr

We have to expect Clev will run the ball vs. the bad Cin Rush D

Cin giving up 5.1 yards/rush

Prop:  Will look for Hunt OVER

Hunt just faced indy/Pit….they give up 3.5 and 3.3 per game

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dal/Wash pk

LIKE WASH:

Wash actually outplayed NYG last week

          13-13, gave up a Fumble 6 at midfield midway thru 4Q

          Still fought back and scored a TD

Dallas:  Failed miserably in a GREAT SPOT last week

          Az:  3rd straight road game, and Az had all the energy

 Dallas:  LOOK AT THIS OLINE issue……

          C Looney, Ts Collins and SMITH OUT  all on IR

          And now backup Ts Drving and Brandon Knight OUT

          AND G Zach Martin(4 time pro bowler) Concussed, ?

SAME SITUATION we saw week 1, Philly vs. Washington…

          Wash DLINE Sacked Wentz 8 times and won game ………….

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Det/Atl -1.5

LEAN OVER

Pass

Det: Upgraded running game going with Rookie Swift

14/116, 8.3 vs. Jax, YTD 6.1

Swift only had 12 carries in prior weeks…….

Det:  Upgraded passing game with WR Golladay back:

          3rd game back, 57 then 62, and now 105 yards…….

Atl:  Upgraded Offense with Julio Jones 100%

          Jones was not 100% most of year: Hamstring

          24 yards vs. Dal, missed week 3 vs. Chic, 32 yards vs. GB

          Missed week 5 vs. Car

          8/137 17.1 2 TD last week vs. MIN

Atl:  AN OVER TEAM with Raheem Morris

          Team was ACTIVELY airing it out even with big lead vs. Min

          Up 33-15 LATE in 4q, threw a TD pass LATE in game……

 

 

 

 

Car/N ORL -7.5

LIKE Carolina at +7 or more

Car:  A team that the market has not caught up with

No team had more transition…..new Coaches and Bridgewater and new starters

          After 2 close ATS losses, team is 3-1 SU ATS

          Carolina had an even stat game vs. Chic, but lost by 7

          THAT loss gets this spead to above 7 giving us value

 

 

Buf/Jets +10.5   Pass

Buf: Bad spot 2nd straight week with SHORT week

Crushed on a TUESDAY @ Ten

Then outplayed MNF vs. KC

Now play Sunday on rd at Jets

Jets:  internal issues

DC: Gregg Williams takes shot at offense

Says the large number of points given up (32/gm) the offense bears a lot of blame……

Note: Vs. Miami…….the D did play super hard 2h with great emotion………..

GB/Hou 3.5

Lean Houbut only at +3.5

HOU: Best 1-5 team I can ever remember

Stats Solid: 6.3-6.1 despite 3rd hardest SOS (KC,Balt,Pit)

And Offense improving: Cooks/Fuller targeted 20x last 2 games

Both were banged up in other games, max was 12 combined targets

Watson:   A top 7 QB…….top 7 QBs “always” win 7 or more games!!

Just a lean:  GB:  Good bounceback spot……..team should be focused

          Called out by LeFluer for poor practice week………

 

GB RB JONES OUT:  Look to Play RB WILLAMS OVER 21 yards if you can find it……

 

Sea/AZ 3.5

STORNG LEAN AZ

Sea: OVERRATED:

          4-0 in 1 score games (8 or less)

          10-2 last year

          Was only 5% to beat Minny SNF 10/11 late

          Sea:  EASIEST SOS IN NFL (Az is 2nd easiest)

          Sea: 6.6-6.2, Az 6.1-5.2

Bad SPOT AZ:  3 straight road games (all significant travel)

          Now home (46.5% ATS historically)

SF/NE -2.5 

LIKE UNDER 45, hooping for higher number……

SF:  Was very effective with quick very short passes vs. Rams/Keep pressure off Jimmy G. Have to expect similar game plan.

Further:  Belichick very likely to gameplan effectively vs. G, should know all his weaknesses…….

NE:  Compromised on the OLINE.

Lost G Mason to IR, last week early in game lost OL ELuemunor to Ankle inj…….he is ?

          They had NO ability to protect Cam vs. Denver……

Market:  HATES NE?

We saw a huge power move against them from -10 to -7 vs. Denver

In general, when we see that much steam against a team, and it wins easily, that is a team that gets faded again the next week……

Pats:  10-4  ATS off back 2 back losses

Pats:  11-3 ATS Belechick vs. past Qbs

KC/Den 7.5

Lean KC 

1 factor dominates:  THE WEATHER

20s, and snow showers expected

Last year Drew Lock 5 games played:

QBR 44,99,14,54,38    The QBR 14 game was a 3-23 loss @KC IN SNOW KC 10 days to prepare

KC:  Lost their last big favorite Div Gm vs. Raiders

          Likely keeps them fully motivated here

Tb/LV 5

LEAN  RAIDERS

TB:  OVERRATED based on their blowout win vs. GB

GB:   Was not ready to play Sunday

LeFleur said the team had a “crap” week of practice, and that was a big part of how the game played out.

Further, GB showed little fight in the game (choosing to punt at midfield down 21).   An early white flag sent a message that this was not a game they were going to be playing hard in the 2nd half.

LV:  Great spot,  Comes in off a bye, (team has been banged up…..Ruggs, Waller, OLine), and gets a team that has to travel across the country off a huge win  UNTIL the whole OLINE couldn’t practice with Covid.

Pit/TEN pk

LIKE PIT …..waiting for line to PEAK

Titans:  Overrated: 5-0

Coinflip wins @Den, Jax,@Min, Hou

          Their one solid game was a great spot hosting Buf Tuesday

Titans stats: Avg……..       6.2 ypp-6.2 against

          FO has Ten no 8 team, 3rd in offense 22 in D

          FO has Pit no 3 team,  9th in offense, 2nd in D

Why still JUST A LEAN:

Bad spot for Pit:  Just crushed Clev in a huge division game

          Play Titans on rd, then they are AT RAVENS NEXT WEEK!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jax/LAC -7.5

LIKE CHARGERS in teasers

          (With Pit, with Det)

          Chargers:  Undervalued based on close losses

          4 straight 1 score gm losses (KC Car @Tb @ N Orl)

          Most recent loss, missed a GW fg as a 7 point dog…….

Jax:  Team with questionable motivation:

          D has now given up 30 4 straight weeks

          Team lost 16-34 to Det, and lost 2h to Det 13-17

                   Det has been HORRIBLE in 2h, especially with leads….

          Minshew on hot seat?  Marrone may sit him?
                   Mike Glennon back up

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chic/RAMS-6

LEAN RAMS

Rams: Undervalued

Rams just lost 16-24 @ SF but it was a horrible spot

Rams 15,000 miles traveled, and it was their 4th rd game in 5 weeks

Facing a desperate SF team playing their 3rd straight home game

Chicago:  OVERVALUED

          Miracle comeback win vs. Det

          Ditto comeback win vs. Atl

Coinflip (at best!) win Thursday night vs. Tampa where they lost stats

Last week Even in stats, but won by 7 vs. Caro

Pick Creation Time:
10/23/2020 7:07 AM
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