Trust me when I tell you I tried hard not to make this bet. In a game with the home team not getting a last at bat if they're ahead by one, and a game with a low total, it's not easy but everything says it's correct.  Although I don't "like" the Dodgers  and "want" the Rays to win, it's not going to be this game. First of all the Dodgers have been here before,  even though it's not a stadium full  of people, and speaking of Stadiums, Los Angeles has just finished playing in this stadium with these sight lines and the Rays have never played here. It's a new stadium and given this seasons' schedule that wasn't ever going to happen, and I  think it matters a lot. Next, we  have what I think is a bad matchup. Glasnow throws heat, and the Dodgers are a great fastball hitting team. Glasnow also can walk people,  and the Dodgers have walked more in this post season than any team that made it to the LCS, and in two less games.  So, Los Angeles should score enough. That also  means that this isn't  a bet on Kershaw finally coming into post season form.  He doesn't have to. The Rays have seen very little of him, and the Rays strike out FAR more than any team this post season.  Margot and Renfroe saw Kershaw when they were in the NL, but they are/were a combined 8-44 while the rest of the Rays are just 1-16 against Kershaw. As  far as bullpens go, Kenley  Jansen isn't  having another implosion, and the Rays'  pen in the series with the Astros had a 1.60 WHIP, which will eventually be costly. So, the Dodgers and their offense will make a statement tonight, and perhaps that makes the Rays' RL a very viable option in game two  - we'll wait and see, but tonight it's the Dodgers game to lose.

10/20/2020 6:28 AM