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2020-10-19T21:00:00.000Z 2020-10-19T21:00:00.000Z - NFL

277 Kansas City Chiefs
vs.
278 Buffalo Bills

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/19/2020

NFL Totals

UN KC/BUF

17-26

56

2

W

200

Analysis
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills 
3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL 
#277-278 / 5:00pm ET / 2:00pm PT
*Optimum OU Line: 55.5 or more points

NOTE the EARLY start time of 5:00pm ET for this game. And to MAXIMIZE our value, make sure you can find a line of 55.5 or more points. That way, if the game ends exactly on one of the KEY OU numbers of 54 or 55 points… we still cash a winner. Obviously, a lot of squares will be betting the OVER on this one. At last look, about 75% to 78% of all TICKETS are on the OVER. But only about 50% of the total CASH. So that one again tells us that sharp money is actually working its way toward the UNDER. Monday Night games have already gone 71% UNDER so far in the 2020 season. Average combined points per game: 46.1. In the last two seasons, the CHIEFS have gone 0-3 O/U when playing on Mondays. And they’re once again showing UNDER tendencies when hitting the road. KC has already gone 0-2 O/U in their road games this season… and 1-5 O/U in the last 12 months. For the Bills, we always look to Go Low when they are catching points. In their last 12 UNDERDOG roles, Buffalo has gone an UNDER-whelming 1-11 O/U in the last 3 seasons…  

Here’s a ‘Did you Know?’ in regards to Monday Night games…. In the last four seasons, NFL Monday Night games between two AFC opponents (like the Chiefs and Bills) have gone an amazing 1-15 O/U… 
When a Monday team is catching points, we always look to Go Low…. 3-13 O/U since 2016: All MONDAY NIGHT games in which the home team (Buffalo) is an UNDERDOG… and the OU line is 43 or more points…  

Both of these teams lost as a FAVORITE last week (KC vs Vegas / BUF vs Ten). 1-9 O/U last 2 years: All NFL home underdogs when BOTH teams (Bills + Chiefs) are off a SU favorite loss in their last game…  

Yes, we are aware that Buffalos just allowed the Titans to roll up 42 points in their last game. 0-7 O/U last 4 years: All non-division conference HOME tams who just allowed 42 pr more points on the ROAD in their last game (Bills)... 

After scoring 30 or more points in Games 2, 3, and 4… Buffalo could only manage 16 points in last week’s loss. 2-10-1 O/U since 1981: All GAME 15 or less underdogs who scored < 16 pts. 30+ pts, 30+ pts in each of their last four games (Bills)… 

Yes, we are ALSO aware that Buffalo has yet to go UNDER in a game this season. They are currently 5-0 O/U in 2020. With that said: 7-24-2 O/U since 1988: All GAME 8 or less underdogs of 10 or less points off 5 or MORE ‘Overs’ in a row (Bills)… 

Don’t look now. But KC’s defense has played pretty well this season. They’re ranked in the Top 7 in points allowed per game (only 22.0). In their first four games, they allowed 20 pts, 20 pts, 20 pts, and 10 pts. Then last week, they allowed Las Vegas to pour in 40 points. So let’s head back to the database: 0-8 O/U last 5 years: All NFL teams after allowing 40 or greater points and 10 or less points in their last two games (Chiefs)...  

Our final queries have us looking at NFL games with EXTREMELY high Over / Under lines. 1-7 O/U last 3 years: All GAME 5 or greater same-CONFERENCE games (Chiefs @ Bills) with a HIGH OU Line of 55 > points… 2-9 O/U since 2007: All AFC Conference games (Chiefs @ Bills) with a high OU line of 55 or more points. 


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Pick Creation Time:
10/19/2020 7:56 AM
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