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2020-10-18T20:25:00.000Z 2020-10-18T20:25:00.000Z - NFL

271 Green Bay Packers
vs.
272 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/18/2020

NFL Totals

UN GB/TB

38-10

55½

2

W

200

Analysis
Sunday, Oct. 18th / 4:35pm PT / 1:35pm PT / #271-272
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

Get your play in as soon as possible. I got mine in at 55.5 points. That’s your target line. If this line falls to 54 or less points, it is then DOWNGRADED to a 1* Play. We talked about this game extensively on this week’s Marc Lawrence ‘AGAINST the SPREAD’ podcast. And my position in the game has not changed. The OU line is simply too high. We’ll take the value with the UNDER. As hot as the Packers are these days on offense (#1 in scoring at 38.0 ppg), let’s look at those opponents. Minnesota (Game 1) is allowing 30.4 ppg (#27 overall). Detroit (Game 2) is allowing 31.8 ppg (#29 overall). New Orleans (Game 3) is allowing 30.0 ppg (#26 overall). And Atlanta (Game 4) is allowing 32.2 ppg (#30). So Green Bay’s gaudy offensive numbers have been against the #30, #20, #27, and #26 defenses. Those numbers should come back down to earth against the 2nd BEST defense in all of football. That would be Tampa Bay, who’s allowing LESS than 300 YPG… and only 22.4 ppg... Our first database query looks at teams like Green Bay who have scored a TON of points as of late. NFL teams who have scored 105 or more combined points in their last three games (an avg of 35.0 ppg) have gone 11-34 O/U when FAVORED in Game 24 or less (Packers). And teams from the NFC Conference in tis situation have done even BETTER for ‘Under’ bettors: 2-16 O/U!…  As mentioned above, this is one of the largest OU lines of the week. 2-10 O/U last 8 years: All non-division road FAVORITES of -5 or less points when the OU line is a HIGH 53 or more points (Packers)… Green Bay has covered the pointspread by 7 or more points in EVERY game this season so far. 1-8 O/U Last 5 years: All same-CONFERENCE teams off 4 or more ATS WINS of 7 > points in their last four games (Packers)… The fact that Green Bay comes in off their Bye Weeks is also significant for UNDER bettors. (1) 0-5 O/U Last 6 years: All UNDEFEATED road teams in GAME 5 or greater when playing with REST (Green Bay). (2) NFL teams with REST off a Monday Night home game hubs gone 1-7 O/U in the last 3 years… In addition to their counterparts, Tampa also has a little extra rest in this game. They played last Thursday and lost to the Chicago Bears. That sets up one of our favorite UNDER situations from the Database: 12-35-1 O/U last 4 years: All NFL teams AFTER playing a Thursday road game (Tampa). These teams have gone 6-22 OU if they LOST that last Thursday game (like the Bucs)… including an amazing 2-17 O/U in the last 3 years Tampa was a road fav in aft Thursday loss to the Bears. 1-8 O/U last 4 years: All NFL underdogs of 5 < pts off a SU and ATS road FAVORITE loss (Buccaneers) in which they scored AND allowed 20 or less points.
Pick Creation Time:
10/16/2020 12:02 PM
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