Sunday. Oct.18th / 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT / #251-252CHICAGO BEARS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
‘Unlikely OVER #1’ takes place in the NFC NORTH vs NFC SOUTH battle between the Bears and the Panthers. Here’s another game in which your OU line is key. Make sure you get your action in at the VALUE number of 44.5 or LESS points in this one. A lot of squares will look at the Bears and think ‘automatic UNDER’. That might be the case AT Soldier Field, where Chicago games have gone 7-20-1 O/U L4Y. (only 37.2 ppg). But when playing NFC SOUTH division opponents, Bear games have averaged a whopping 53.5 combined PPG in the last 2 years.With Carolina laying points in this one, we can’t ‘OVER-look’ (pun intended) that the PANTHERS have now gone a PERFECT 9-0 O/U in the last 4 years as NON-DIVISION home favorites. And EVERY one of these games has seen 50 or more combined PPG (avg margin: +14.2 ppg!). With the Bears coming in off a Thursday home game, one of our favorite OVER situations is active in this game. It starts in the database like this: 65-31-2 O/U s’2013 (67% Overs) for all NON-DIVISION teams playing after a THURSDAY home game (BEARS). The numbers improve to 56-23 O/U (71% Overs) when the OU line is 51 < points. And here’s the clincher: These teams have gone an almost PERFECT 16-1 O/U if they (a) went UNDER the Total in that last Thursday game (check), and (b) the OU line is in the range of 43 to 51 points (check). For the host Carolina Panthers, their home games have already averaged 58.0 combined ppg on the year. And off a couple of DOG wins in a row, a great database situation is in play. NFL GAME 10 or less HOME teams off 2 or more DOG wins in a row (PANTHERS beat Atlanta and Arizona) have gone 24-4-1 O/U since the 2012 season. These teams in last two years: 8-1 O/U (avg margin +12.3 ppg). Not only that, but BOTH teams are off dog wins in their last game. 8-0 O/U last 4 years: All non-division home teams when BOTH are of a SU DOG win in their last game (PANTHERS + BEARS), when the OU line is in the range of 40-47 points. The BEST ‘Over’ situation from THIS season: 12-2 O/U for all home favs < 7 pts (CAR) in 2020 when the OU line is 46 or less points.