HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT / #257-258
*Optimum OU line: 53.5 or less points
The opening line for this week’s AFC South battle between the TEXANS and TITANS opened at 55 points. It has come down a little to the current number of 53.0 to 53.5 as we type our writeup on Friday morning. Let that be your target line. ANY number that is BELOW 54 points is what we want to shoot for. We want to be able to clearly cash a winner just in case this game falls right on top on what are some of the most important KEY numbers when it comes to OU betting. There are numerous possible and probable scoring outcomes that could very well have this game finishing EXACTLY at 54 or 55 points. Scores like 38-17, 37-17, 35-21, 35-20, 34-21, 34-20, 31-24, or 30-24. So with that said, make sure that you can find a line of 53,5 or less points.. to maximize your VALUE as much as possible. The recent coaching change in Houston looks like it has already paid off dividends. The Texans sacked Bill O’Brien after his 0-4 start to the 2020 season AND the fact that he basically had a team REVOLT on his hands. In his first game, Romeo Crennel unleashed QB DeShuan Watson and he responded with his best game of the year 25-35 / 360 yards / 1091 passer rating). In their first four games, Houston had offensive outputs of only 360 yds, 304 yds, 260 yds, and 386 yds. But in last week’s Game One of the Crennel era, Houston had their highest output of the season (486 yards). And that was 100 yards better than in ANY other game this season. They’ll be taking on a Titans team that’s still on a big-tome OVER run since last season. TENNESSEE has gone 13-4 O/U in their last 17 games… including 7-1 O/U at HOME. Their average OU margin in those home games at Nissan Stadium is an impressive +10.1 points per game...
Tennessee just put up 42 points in their Tuesday home win vs the Bills. (1) 8-0 O/U last 2 years: All GAME 11 or less NFL teams who just scored 40 or MORE points at HOME in their last game (TEN)…
In a 2-consecutive-games-in-a-row stretch, the Titans go from home DOGS (vs But) to home FAVS (vs Hou). (2) 16-2 O/U last 5 years: All home favorites of -6 < points who were a home DOG the previous week (TITANS), when the OU line is 43 > points…
Tennessee is one of only FOUR teams who are still undefeated on the season. (3) 10-1 O/U since 2996 / 6-0 O/U since 2015: All GAME 4 or more UNDEFEATED home favorites of < 10 pts (TEN), versus any .333 or worse opponent (HOU), when the OU line is in the range of 41 to 56 points…
Tennessee has had their problems defending the run this season. They are ranked DEAD LAST in the league, allowing 5.5 yards per rush. (4) 8-1-1 O/U since 2016: All division home favorites of < 14 pts, who ALLOW > 5.0 yards per rush on defense (TEN), when the OU Line is a high 50 or more points…
This is the middle of a 3-home-games-in-a-row stretch for Tennessee. (5) 12-1 O/U Last 3 years: All GAME 11 or less favorites in the 2ND of 3 straight home games (TEN), when the OU Line is > 41 points…
Yes, we are aware that both of these teams are off victories in which they held their opponents in check. Houston allowed only 14 points last week while Tennessee allowed only 16. With that said, our database reveals: (6) 13-2 O/U since 2010: All GAME 11 or less ‘short’ home favorites of < 5 pts when BOTH teams are off a SU win in which they ALLOWED less than (<) 17 points (TEN + HOU). When the OU line in these gams is 42 > pts, the results improve to a PERFECT 6-0 O/U…
This is one of those rare games in which one team is playing GAME #5 while their opponent is playing GME #6. (7) 12-2 O/U since 2013: All GAME FIVE home teams (TITANS) versus any GAME SIX opponent (TEXANS), when the OU line is 43 or more points…
Speaking of Game Six teams…
(8) 9-1 O/U since 2006: All GAME SIX underdogs of 3 > points off a GAME FIVE home win that went UNDER the Total (HOU beat Jax 30-14 last week), when the OU Line is > 42 points…
So in their last two home games, the Texans win and covered as a FAV (vs J’Ville) and lost as a fav (vs Minnesota). (9) 6-0 O/U since 2010: All GAME 15 or less teams off a SUATS home FAV win and a SUATS home FAV loss in their last two games (HOU), when the OU line is a HIGH 50 or more points.