NAVY MIDSHIPMEN @ EAST CAROLINA PIRATES
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
Saturday, Oct. 17th / 12:00pm ET / 9:0am PT / #117-118
*Optimum OU Line: 55.5 or less points
Last week, we joined the high-scoring party that is now commonplace in the new-look SEC Conference. That Best Best was on the OVER in the Texas A&M / Florida game. We ended up cashing that one by 3 full TD’s. In fact, last Saturday was the highest0scoring day EVER in the SEC Conference. While a lot of the squares are now jumping on SEC ‘Overs’ this week, they may be a week late to the party. For us, we’re heading to the American Athletic Conference for this week’s play. And this EAST CAROLINA / NAVY game has so much going for it… that we are compelled to bump this one up to 3* Best Bet status. After all, our database models strongly point to an outcome in which we see at least 67 to 68 total points. And that’s more than 10 points HIGHER than the current OU line. In fact, the line in this one keep going down… and that’s ok by me. For every half point that the OU line crees down, our VAKUE increases even more…
Based on this year’s numbers alone, we are ’Statistically OBLIGATED’ to come our with a Big Play in this one. For instance, not many people know that NEITHER team has gone UNDER in a game this season. That’s right. East Carolina and Navy are a combined PERFECT 7-0 O/U so far in the 2020 season. That’s what you get when you see two very bad defenses taking in each other. Navy checks in allowing 37.0 points per game and 442.5 yards per game on defense. For the Pirates of East Carolina, it’s even worse. They are allowing 41.3 points per game on defense. The only three college teams that are allowing MORE are Mississippi (51.7 ppg allowed), North Texas (46.5 pg), and Kansas (44.0). Not only that, buy the Pirates are also one of only three teams that are allowing MORE than 500 offensive yards per game this season. No wonder that they are a perfect 3-0 O/U this year. But what’s even more impressive to OVER bettors are the MARGINS. The average OU line for an East Carolin game has been 69.0. Average combined points: 75.0. And THIS week’s line is about 13 points LOWER than their year-to-date average. So WHY is the OU line so low in this one? Well, for one…. let’s not forget that Navy is a TRIPLE-OPTION team on offense. And it can be dangerous at times to play an OVER with these triple-option teams. But with that said… NUMBER ONE: The time to consider an UNDER is a game in which BOTH teams run the triple-option. Its why so many of the ‘Military vs Military’ games go UNDER at such a high percentage. And NUMBER TWO, to counter Navy’s triple-option, sharp bettors are already aware that East Carolina runs a very FAST offense. They are one of only 15 teams in college football that are playing at a very quick 80-plays-a-game or more on the year (80.3 to be exact). And those numbers are even quicker when the Pirates are playing the role of the host. Their HOME games have seen 85.0 plays per game on offense. And that’s tied for 4th quickest in all of football (#1 LSU 91.0 / #2 Virginia 90.5 / #3 Central Florida 86.0)…
In the last five seasons, EAST CAROLINA home games (22 of ‘em) have averaged a combined 69.2 points per game. When allowing 160 or more rushing yards in a game, the Pirates are averaging a combined 69.9 points per game. And dating back to last season, East Carolina has gone OVER in seven straight games (7-0 O/U). On the flip side, when instead as ROAD FAVORITES in a game… NAVY has seen a combined average of 77.4 points per game! In terms of this Navy vs East Carolina SERIES, the OVER has gone 6-1 in the last seven meetings. Check out some of the gaudy point totals in some of those meetings: 101 total points… 97 total points… 84 total points… 73 total points… and 66 total points. Based on the current pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score in this game is Navy 29.5 - East Carolina 26.5. Our in-season database models and simulations differ quite significantly. More like: NAVY MIDSHIPMEN 34.0 - EAST CAROLINA PIRATES 33.0. That’s a margin that’s about 11 points higher than the current OU line. And that major difference of more than 10 points has us bumping this one UP to 3* BEST BET status.