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2020-10-11T20:25:00.000Z 2020-10-11T20:25:00.000Z - NFL

473 Indianapolis Colts
vs.
474 Cleveland Browns

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

10/11/2020

NFL Totals

UN IND/CLE

32-23

47½

3

L

-330

Analysis


Indy is a GREAT under team with an elite D, and an average O

Clev has a slightly above av O and D.

With Indy D having the key edge, LOVE under here.

INDY: HUGE UNDER TEAM, FO 24th O, 1st D, 5.5 O, 4.4 D    
Clev strange Hiscoring gms  Cin (65 points, Wash 54). Yds 309-300, CIN only 4 y/play
Clev NO1 Run prevlalence, 53%, Indy no 6 50%      
Pace of Play:  Clev 21st  28 sec, Indy 30th 29.5 sec
 
   

MIDWEEK NOTES:

Car +2 at ATL

LEAN CAR Car is a team we knew might start slow

          New coaching staff, new QB Bridgewater, huge roster turnover

          Lost 2 very close ATS games (LV, @TB)

          Then played very well upsetting Chargers, Az

          Team is UNDERVALUED based on slow start

          Bridgewater:  Lots to like

                   Clicking with Robby Anderson and DJ Moore

And just had 6 carries, looks healthy, cutting into middle of field on TD run

 

Atl: Just had their “home run game” vs. GB

MNF national spotlight

Failed vs. GB despite GB down top 2 WRs

When Atl was down 18 they showed no sense of Urgency

Play clocked often ticked down to :05……7 minute drive they had.

 

 

 

 

\LV +13 at KC

LEAN LV +13

Bad spot for KC:

MNF @ Baltimore 2 weeks ago

MNF vs. New Eng last week

          (Raiders can analyze what NE did to slow down Mahomes)

          KC: VERY fortunate to cover vs. NE

                   Hoyer mistakes

                   And then Edelman missed catch, pick 6 in 4Q.

LV: Played Buf evenly in the stats

Stats were even:

          BUf 336 (5.7) LV 383 (5.6)

          Buf wins T/os 0-2

 

          Two 3rd quarter fumbles lost ultimately lead to a 7 points loss

          LOVED Carr’s post game interview……he is sick of losing

Denver/NE No Line

Lock vs. Rypien is a 3 point difference

Cam vs. Hoyer/Stidham is a 4 point difference

Rams/Wash

LEAN WASH +7.5

QB change for Wash:  NO change in Ratings

          Haskins -3, worst starting QB in NFL

          Allen -3, also worst starting QB in NFL

However, Wash should get a boost in morale from making the change

          Rams:  Terrible Travel Spot

          At Philly, At Buffalo, home to NYG, now AT Wash

                   Rams team seriously underperformed vs. NYG

                   Stats close to equal

Rams clinging to 10-9 lead 4Q when they got a long pass to go up 17-9, then hung on              

Jax/HOU -6 PASS  Line went DOWN when O’Brien fired.

Typically money comes ON  a team who fires coach

          No faith in interim Coach Romeo Crennel!

Jax:  Got badly outplayed at Cin last week

          Bengals looked to be the better team IN THE 2nd half

Jax lead at half by 3 Then Cin Dominated game

Not a good sign considering Jax had a huge energy edge

Cincy was off an OT, Jax had 10 days

Buf/Ten  NO LINE.

 

Az/Jets +7

PASS

Az Dominated by Carolina, now have to fly back East

Then back to NY for early start

          And Jets 10 days to get ready

Jets:  HORRENDOUS vs. Den

          They were +3 in Turnovers

          Rypien gifted them 2 turnovers in 4Q, 11 points!

          Jets still lost by 9!!

Flacco:  1 point downgrade vs. Darnold

          Flacco:  Did have decent QBRs (51 w Den ly), 55 w/Balt 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Phil/Pit -7 LEAN UNDER

                   Pit: EZ SOS, wins by 10 @NYG, 5 vs. Den, 7 vs. Hou

          Pit: Early “bye” sets them up with a big edge here

          Vs. Philly:  2 weeks ago OT tie, last week, SNF win @ SF

          Philly struggled on Offense, really missing WRS/OLINE

                   UNDER 300 yards of offense vs SF

                   YTD:  4.5 y/play 2

                   And down OLINEMAN, AND RT lane Johnson in/out in 49rs

                   (RG Brooks, LT Dillard, LG Seumalo, T Jason Peters IR)

          WRs:  Reagor IR, Jeffery OUT indefinitely, Jackson ? Hamstring

Cin/Balt -13

LIKE CIN

Burrow:  Trending UP:  QBR 17, then 81 58 55

          1st 2 games: Over targeted AJ Green?

                   Gave Green 9 then 13 targets, and Green looks shot

                   Last 2 games:  Green 6 and 5 targets only

          Burrow going to Boyd and Higgens with much more success

                   Boyd 320, Higgins 152, Green 119

 

Mia/SF NO LINE

SF:  Jimmy G?  Worth 3.5 points vs. Mullens/Beathard

Jimmy G likely worth 4 in games SF is the UNDERDOG?

Jimmy G worth less in games they should have a comfortable lead in?

NYG/DAL -9.5 PASS

Dallas:  Worst in NFL in Turnover Margin: -7

Dallas D is a MESS giving up 7 yards/play despite Clev running the majority of time…40 of 73 plays

Dallas:  Questionable effort on D:  Let Clev run for 300 yards

          Despite Clev best RB Chubb out in 1st half

Dallas: Continues to be a great “stat” team

          No 7 in yards/play differential +.6

          No 3 in league with 6.6 yards/play

Gmen:  Solid effort vs. Rams, stats were close to equal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Indy/CLEV

LEAN CLEV

Browns:  Home Underdog momentum situation

          Love that Stefanski got Beckham involved

                   2 reverses to him, and a trick play pass from Landry

                   Innovation on Offense for Browns

          Browns: 35-30 Cincy win looks bettor

After Cin ties Philly, beats Jax

Cin only 4.0 ypplay in that game, 5/5 on 4th down

Tough spot for Indy

Tough physical game on the Road at Chicago

Now have to go on rd to Cleveland

KEY INJURY:  MLB Darrius Leonard, injured last game, Groin

         

 

 

 

 

 

 

Min/SEA

LEAN MIN

Sea: Fugasi

+5 T/0s

YPP -2.  Min is better at +.3

87% RedZone TDS (60% is NFL avg)

 

However:  Cousins playing on rd in primetime

WAY different from his preferred 1 PM EST start time

Min O:  Better with emergence of WR Justin Jefferson

          348 yards (21.8 per catch)

          26, 44, 175, 103

 

Min 1-3 team vs. 3-1 team, edge to Min

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MNF:  LA/NEW ORL-7.5   PASS

Chargers injuries:

Chargers:  RB Ekeler OUT Hamstring

Chargers OLINE: Banged up

          C Pouncey OUT

          T Bulaga, Norton G Trai Turner all ?

 

N ORL:  Michael Thomas back?
He has barely played all year.

Thomas did get limited practice LAST week

Brees:  Looked SHARP last week:

Attempted Air Yards:  5.8 this year

          Still last in league (but tied with Goff)

          6.7 last year

          7.1 2 years ago

                  

 

 

 

 

 

         

 

 

 

 

 


I attached some notes I have from last week:


 

KEY GAMES:

Clev 49 DAL 38

Clev runs for 40/307 despite Chubb injured 1st half!

Dallas D is a MESS giving up 7 yards/play despite Clev running the majority of time…40 of 73 plays

                  

Clev got Bechkam involved early with trick plays

          Landry TD pass to him

          Reverse to him 1st half (and end of gm)

Dal -3 T/0, 2 turnovers back to back 2Q got Clev a 14 point lead

Clev covers 2nd half +7 by 1 with a  miracle 2 points on a blocked Xtra point they somehow recover and run in………

 

Dak:                     41/58 502 8.7 4/1 QBR 76

Mayfield:            19/30 165 5.5 2/0 QBR 61

I upgraded Clev by 1 lowered Dallas by 1

 

 

 

Indy 19 CHIC 11

          Indy completely shut down Chic offense, it was 19-3 LATE

          Indy 290 yards (4.2) Chic 269 ( 4.6)

                   Chic struggled despite no MLB Darius Leonard 2h

Chic 90 yard drive vs. prevent D in final 4 mins, made stats

better

                             Foles:  26/42/241 5.9 1/1 QBR 42

                             Rivers:  16/29/186 6.6 1/0 QBR 82       

Chic O struggled all day despite Indy MLB Darius Leonard OUT 2nd half

                   Chic garbage yards late

                   3-19 Chic trailed and got 90 yards on last drive

And Chic got a bail out PI call on a long pass on 4th down on the drive before

 

I upgraded Indy ½ a point, lowered Chic by 1 point

         

 

 

 

Buf 30 Oak 23

Stats were even:

          BUf 336 (5.7) LV 383 (5.6)

          Buf wins T/os 0-2

          Allen continues to shine: 4th straight gm ABOVE his 266 prior high

                   Allen 24/34 288 8.5 2/0 QBR 92

                   Carr 32/44 311 7.1 2/0 QBR 90

                             Carr solid despite missing top 2 WRS

                             WRs:  Renfrow 5/57, Agholor 4/44

Buf D continues to WAY underperform:

          Raiders 383 yards, 5.6/play despite down both starting WRs

          YTD:  Buf D giving up:  5.9 (21st in league)

          2019: BUF D gave up:  4.9 (4th)

Raiders:   2 turnovers do them in 2nd half:

          Waller, then Carr both fumbled on drives

          Kept the Raiders down 14……..

 

I upgraded Buf by ½ a point

 

 

Philly 25 SF 20

SF (Mullens) really gave away this game:

          Philly O held in check….

Philly:   267 yards (4.5)  SF 417 yards (6.0)

T/o:  Phi 1 SF 3

Wentz was down All his WRS (Jackson, Reagor, Jeffery)

          And Oline already with 3 injuries, had Lane Johnson going in/out

Wentz:  18/28 193 6.9 1/1 sacked 3x, QBR 74

Mullens:   18/26 200 7.7 1/2 Sacked 4x, QBR 13

          Key mistakes:  Up 8-7 end 2Q throws Interception

UP 14-11, 10 min left, FUMBLES on a sack, Philly gets a 42 yard TD drive

ON THE PLAY before Mullens missed a WIDE OPEN pass to the 50 to Kendrick Bourne…..

Down 14-18, throws a pick 6 next drive…..

          Beathard:   14/19 138 7.3,   0/0 Sacked 1x, QBR 74

No change to Philly ratings; I felt this was all on Mullens

 

 

Ne 10 KC 26

KC was fortunate to cover the game.  NE won the yardage 357 to 323.  KC DID win ypp 5.9 to 4.8

The key to the game was KC +3 in T/o Margin (4 to 1)

NE did have some success on offense despite being down 2 OLINEMAN during game (RG Mason, and RT Eleunmonor left early in gm,  Migraine)

Hoyer played poorly, and made bad mistakes, including taking a sack at the end of the 1st half when he thought the team still had a time out (cost the Pats 3 points). 

Edelman dropped a pass that turned into a pick 6

THAT one play changed the score from  a 19-10 final to a 26-10 final.

 

Mahomes (held in check); 236 yards 2TD/0 int, 8.1, QBR 60

Hoyer:        130 yards,  0 TD/1 INT, QBR 39

Stidham:    60 yards, 1 TD/2 INT, QBR 42

 

I made no changes to the teams Ratings

 

 

 

ATl 16/GB 30

Packers:  BIGGEST HFA in NFL THIS Year? Slick grass surface

          Defeated Det 42-21 only home game

          And now won by 14 vs. Atl

GB:  REALLY HURTING AT WR

Didn’t matter, Rodgers just threw to others, his backup Tight End had a huge game with 3 Tds.

Adams OUT – Worth 1 point (192 yards)

Lazard  OUT- IR- Went for almost 150 yards last week (254 yards ytd)

Julio Jones ATL DID miss 2nd half, hamstring.

Atl showed ZERO sense of urgency, down 18 in 2nd half they had over a 7 min drive, often with the play clock hitting 5 or below!

Many expected 0-3 Atl to show a great sense of urgency but it was lacking completely.

HUGE money against GB here….line dropped from 7 midweek all the way down to 5……..last year we saw many “curious” line moves against the Packers at home similar to this….and for the most part the bettors have lost fading GB………

Aaron Rodger resurgence, what is causing it, Jordan Love?

I upgraded GB by .5, lowered Atl by .5 


Pick Creation Time:
10/06/2020 8:17 AM
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