On the surface, the oddsmaker seems justified making the Padres this big of a road favorite against a bad team in a pitching matchup of righty Chris Paddack versus lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who was a terrible pitcher last year and has a 5.35 ERA this season.
But there are factors pointing to the Mariners hanging in if not winning outright.
Seattle is home where they are an above .500 team. The Mariners have won seven of the last eight times when going against a righty starter.
Paddack left his most recent start because he suffered an ankle injury. Paddack may not be 100 percent. He also is not pitching as well as he did earlier in the season. Paddack has yielded five earned runs in his last 6 2/3 innings.
Kikuchi isn't as bad as he was last season when he was introduced to the major leagues. His velocity is higher this season and he's cut way back on giving up homers. He also has 39 strikeouts in 37 innings. Kikuchi defeated the Padres, 8-3, in San Diego on Aug. 27
The Padres are 24-11 against righthanded starting pitching, but just 8-8 when facing lefty starters.
(Bonus Play)
Cubs minus $1.25 hosting Twins
The Twins' power is way down from last season and they've struggled on the road going 10-16.
The Cubs are 18-12 at Wrigley Field and have the better pitching matchup here with Kyle Hendricks facing lefty Rich Hill.
Hendricks is in outstanding form with a 2-0 record and 1.66 ERA during his past three starts.
Hill is capable of pitching gems. He's also capable of leaving the game after one pitch. Hill is 40 years old and one of the most fragile pitchers in the league. Hill has a 3.81 ERA this season. The Cubs are 6-3 going against southpaws.