DENVER NUGGETS vs LOS ANGELES LAKERS
2** OVER THE TOTAL
Game One / Western Conference Finals / 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT / #733-744
The Western Conference start play on Friday Night with the #1 seed LAKERS taking on the #3 seed NUGGETS. As of late, it’s been ALL about the UNDER for both teams. LA went 1-4 O/U in the series vs Houston, including Unders in each of the last three games. Prior to that, it was a 2-3 O/U record vs the Trailblazers in Round One. For the surprising Nuggets, they went an almost PERFECT 0-6-1 O/U in their seven game series against the Clippers. Prior to that, it was a 5-2 O/U record in their first round series vs the Jazz. With that said, there’s been a major OU adjustment for tonight’s Game One. In the regular season, the average OU line between these two teams has been 223.0 in the last ten meetings. And there’s no way that we are gonna be fading results like this:
The LAKERS and NUGGETS have gone 21-5-3 O/U in the last 29 meetings versus each other since the 2012 season. That includes 3-0 O/U in the three game since Christmas of last year. Average combined PPG: 237.7. Also, when Denver is a DOG in this Nuggets / Lakers historical series… the results have been a perfect 7-0-1 O/U… with an average margin of +17.1 points per game.
The fact that Denver just went l-o-n-g in their series versus the Clippers plays a big part in tonight’s play. From the database: All NBA Playoff GAME ONE teams who just went to GAME SEVEN in their previous Playoff series (NUGGETS have gone 16-3 O/U when the OU line is < 220 points….
Denver is off not one, not two, but THREE straight Playoff underdog wins in a row. In the history of our database, NBA teams off 3 or more DOG Playoff wins in a row (DENVER have gone 7-1-1 O/U when the OU line is in the range of 190 to 220 points….
In Denver’s series-clinching win, they held the mighty Clippers to only 89 total points. 9-1 o/U last 5 years: All NBA Playoff teams off a SU Playoff DOG win in which they ALLOWED less than 90 points (NUGGETS), when the OU line is in the range of > 192 and < 216 points…
As mentioned above, the #1 seed Lakers closed out the Houston series with three straight UNDERS in a row. 6-0 O/U since 2015: All NBA Playoff #1 SEED favorites off 3 or more Playoff UNDERS in a row (LAKERS), when the OU line is > 210 points…
SO both teams closed out their respective last rounds with wins of 23 points (Lakers) and 15 points (Nuggets). 7-0 O/U since 2011: All NBA Playoff FAVORITES when BOTH teams (LAKERS + NUGGETS) are off a SU win of 15 or more points, when the OU Line is < 223 points.