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2020-09-20T17:00:00.000Z 2020-09-20T17:00:00.000Z - NFL

279 Jacksonville Jaguars
vs.
280 Tennessee Titans

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

09/20/2020

NFL Totals

UN JAC/TEN

33-30

44

Free

L

Free

Analysis
Sunday, Sept. 29th
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT 
#279-280 
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans 
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL 

Sunday’s FREE 2** Totals Play is also in the early kickoffs, as the Titans host the Jaguars in a AFC South game in which both teams were victorious in their season debuts. 

This is a division in which UNDERS hit at a pretty high percentage when the home team is favored. (1) AFC SOUTH DIVISION games have gone 3-16-1 O/U in the last 8 years when (a) the home team is FAVORED by > 4 pts (Ten), and (b) the OU line is 40 or more points.

At last look, Tennessee was installed as one of the largest favorites of Week Two action (-9 pts). That high pointspread triggers a ‘buy sign’ on the UNDER in the first two weeks of the year. 
(2) 5-20-1 O/U since 2009: All GAMES 1 or 2 when (a) the FAVORITE is laying -9 or more points (Ten), and (b) the OU line is 49 or less points. 

Also jumping out at us from the database are three separate ‘GAME SPECIFIC’ queries that point to a low-scoring affair. 
(3) WEEK TWO same-DIVISION games have gone 3-18 O/U s’2012 when (a) the home team is FAVORED (Ten vs Jax), and (b) the OU line is > 42 points... 
(4) 5-21-1 O/U since 2011: All WEEK TWO road teams off a Week One HOME win that went OVER the Total (Jax), when the OU line is 52 < pts...
(5) 2-13 O/U last 4 years: All WEEK TWO favorites off a Week One ROAD ‘Under’ (Ten). 

The fact that Tennessee played on Monday Night in Week One also points to a lower-than-anticipated final score. In the last 2 seasons, NFL teams off a MONDAY night ROAD win (Titans) have gone 1-11 O/U. 

And how about that Mile-High OPPONENT that Tennessee just played? Is there an OU altitude adjustment? Since 2007, NFL favs have gone a perfect 0-7 O/U AFTER a Monday Night game IN Denver (Titans). 

The visiting Jags are off a surprising home DOG win over the Colts in Week One. 0-7 O/U since 2010: All NFL teams off a SU division home WIN of 6 > pts in a game in which they were a DOG of +6 > pts (Jags). 

On the schedule next week for the Jaguars is a THURSDAY affair against the Miami Dolphins. In the last 2 years, NFL road teams have gone 1-12 O/U BEFORE playing a Thursday home game (Jaguars), when the OU line is in the range of > 37 and < 51 points. Final score: 20 to 16...
Pick Creation Time:
09/18/2020 10:47 AM
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