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2020-09-13T17:00:00.000Z 2020-09-13T17:00:00.000Z - NFL

463 Philadelphia Eagles
vs.
464 Washington Football Team

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

09/13/2020

NFL Sides

Redskins

27-17

+6

2

W

200

Analysis
NOTE:  I have attached my NFL Week 1 notes, along with a few other notes:

NFL Fans UPDATE: Week1/2

          KC: 16k fans

          Mia: 13k fans

          Dallas:  Some fans

          Clev:  6000 fans

          Indy: 2500 fans

          Jax:  17000 fans

 

IMPACT on few/no fans

          Hurts:  Sea, N Orl, Min the most……..

          Least impacted:  LA Chargers, Jax, Wash

However:

          Will travel be more difficult for road teams this year?

Especially unfamiliar travel …….with so many Covid Restrictions………

 

 

 

 

 

Circa Contest Updates: as of end of August

Circa Millions:  

8/31 958 Entries

9/4 1312

9/6 1691

9/8 1994

(Need 3000 to meet Guarantee)

Circa Survivor:

8/31 414 Entries

9/4 534

9/6 700

9/8 812

 (Need 1000 to meet Guarantee)

 

Millions looks to be a likely overlay

Survivor likely NO overlay

Million:      Multiple Prizes, so more diversified

Survivor not nearly as attractive with only 1 prize

DIVISION LEANS: 

         

Dallas:  Ideal Division:

Wash only supposed to win 5 games, new coach, new QB

NYG:  6 wins, new coach, 2nd year QB

Philly:  Hit hard with injuries

Dallas -135 to win Division, looks attractive

 

 

Det:  The ‘last place team” that could win the division:

GB projected to be down

          13-3 was an aberration

Min projected to be down

          Lost starters in CB, and DL, and Diggs

Chic Projected to be down

Det at 5-1 has a legit shot to win the Division

 

 

 

 

 

 

Key NFL injuries:

LV Raiders

 WR Tryell Williams, IR, Labrum, out for year

          He is Raiders No1 WR

          Raiders to go with 2 Rookies as No1 Wrs

           Now Raiders WRs are:

                   R Ruggs, R Bryan Edwards,

 Hunter Renfroe (Slot),  Agholor

 

Phi  Eagles Cluster Injuries:

WR:

No 2 WR Jeffery OUT Indefinitely (foot)

Rookie WR Reagor Doubtful (shoulder)

OL:

          RG Brandon Brooks OUT
          LT Andre Dillard OUT

          T Lane Johnson, lower body, Questionable

 Also:

          RB Miles Sanders:  Probable (Lower Body)
          QB Wentz, did not practice last week, (soft tissue issue)

Chargers: 2 Key players

WR:  Mike Williams OUT Shoulder (PFF 74.1)

          Chargers:  Only have 2 good WRs

          No1 Keenan Allen, LY 1199 (11.5)

Mike Williams, LY 1001 (avg 20.4) likely out all September, Shoulder

          No 3 WR Moore is rated 57.6, 2 catches last yr with Chargers

 

S Dervin James OUT all Year KNEE (PFF grade 82.3)

          Chargers Ss are rated

                   Jenkins 63.1 , Adderlay 42.6

         

Jets:  WR cluster Injuries:

          Perriman, knee, ?, Knee

          Rookie Mims, ?, hamstrung, has not been able to practice

Dallas: OLINE
          C Frederick retired

          RT Collins OUT 3 weeks.  HIP

 

 

NFL game notes: NFL week 1

Thursday: Hou/KC -9.5 54

Lean KC

Total dropping with possible rain in forecast

Revenge game for playoffs when hou lead 24-0, lost 31-51

          Hou just traveled to KC their last gm (advantage Hou… routine)

Hou WR:  Cooks ? with QUAD, did not practice Tuesday

          BIG deal with No3 WR Kenny Stills, thin at WR

KC TE Kelce:  Prob knee, practiced Tuesday  

“zig zag” favors Houston……blowout loss last gm vs. KC

          Stadium:  20% capacity fans

Mia/NE-6 43

PASS

Revenge for NE week 17 loss 24-27 to Fitz

Both teams 5-4 SU last 9 games

BIG Q:  How long will it take Cam to be up to speed?

Ex Patriots on Mia 3 starters join FAs

          Kyle Van Noy EDGE, Elondon Roberts LB, Center Ted Karras all FA

Edge Mia?

 

Clev/Balt-8 49

Clev: Got to see Lamar Jackson 3x now

2019: Clev 40 BALT 25

          Balt 31 CLEV 15

2018: Clev 24 BALT  26 Week 17

The Big Question:  Will Jackson keep running so much:

          Lamar Jackson, no 6 rusher in NFL, 1206 yards (6.9 avg)

Clev:   New Coach Stefanski, disadvantage

Balt:  No1 team In rushes, adv, BUT it is a timing running offense

          So maybe not as much

Balt:  UNDERVALUED?  Clear cut best team for much of yr?

Jets/Buf -6.5 LEAN BUF

Two defensive games last year:

Buf 17 JETS 16

Jets 13 BUF 6

Jets:  Lose 2 best defenders:

          S adams Traded  LB CJ Mosely opts out

Jets WR issues: Perriman Knee, Probable, no practice since Aug

          Mims, hamstring, Probable, missed 2 weeks practice, back Wed

Jets:  New OLINE, no wrs,  big issues for Darnold vs. Elite Buf D

LV -3.1/Car 48

LEAN CAROLINA

          I think this is all anti-Car money, not pro Raider money

          Carolina team with least stability

          New Unproven HC:  Matt Rhule

                   New Coordinators, including unproven DC Snow

                    New QB:  Bridgewater

          8 of 11 new starters D

Raiders:  Key injury:  No 1 WR Tryell Williams out

          Go with Renfro, and rookies (Ruggs, Edwards)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sea-1.5 /ATL 49

Lean SEA

9.5 win team at a 7.5 win team

Line should be ‘4.6’ on a neutral…….

Early start time NOT AS BIG A DEAL

          No preseason games with NIGHTTIME starts

          That always made it more difficult EARLY in year to play 10am PST

 

The Big Question:  Does the ATL def improvement carryover with Raheem Morris?

          Atl 1-7 then 6-2 last yr.

LY :  Sea 27 ATL 20

          Matt Schaub played entire game.

          Sea lead 24-0 at half…..

         

 

 

 

 

 

Philly -6 /Wash 43

LIKE WASH +6

Huge matchup edge Wash:  Wash DL vs. injured Philly Oline

Wash:  Had 2 leads Last year vs. phily

          Lost week 1 up 20-7, lost 27-32

          Lost week 15 up 27-24 with :30 left……..yet lost 27-37

Philly Injuries:

Lineman:  Brooks, Dillard OUT

          Shuffled Oline in Covid year…..not good

          WRs:  Jeffery indefinitely, R Reagor OUT week1

          Rb:  Sanders ?... has missed 2 weeks of practice

 

Chic/Det -3, 44.5

Line says Det IS the better team

Det lost Stafford 2h year and RB Kerryon Johnson

Det double revenge, lost 2 close games with Driskell and Blough LY

          Chic QB: Trusbisky named starter

Chic RB:  Montgomery: Strained Groin, questionable, groin has not practiced in 2 weeks, bears have no good backup

 

Indy-8/Jax 45     

Does Jax start like Mia did last year?

          Mia players had a 2 week “lack of effort” start after it was clear that winning that year was not a priority.     Do we see a similar start for Jax?

Rivers did CRUSH Jax last year

Dec 8, Chargers 45 JAX 10

          Rivers:  16/22 314 3/0

Blowout Revenge for Indy  

          Indy 20 JAX 38 Week 17

Weather:   86 degreees, 60% rain

 

GB/Min -2.5, 46

Line move through the 3

Kirk Cousins gets his preferred 10 am Start time

Will Cousins be ok without Diggs ?

          WR1 Thielin        WR2  Justin Jefferson R from LSU

What is Rodgers mind set? GB swept Min last year

Min 16 GB 21 (Min had 421 yards, Gb 335)

MIN 10 gb 23 (HELD MIN TO 139 yards!)

Chargers -3.25/Cincy 44 

LIKE CIN if you can get +3.5

Chargers:  Key injuries both sides of ball

S Derwyn James OUT FOR YEAR

No 1 WR Williams: Game time decision

          HUGE loss, 1001 yards, AND had 20.4/catch!

          Chargers have Keenan Allen, and very little else at WR

Bengals:  Should improve at Offense
          AJ Green out all year 2019

          Boyd/Aj Green/Mixon solid Skill players!

Az/SF -7 47.5  LIKE Az +7

Az: Offense very successful ly vs. SF

          Scored 25 in both games

          Team covered both games with their offense

          Murray should be better with Hopkins

          SF: WR issues               No1 Samuel Questionable with Foot

                   Rookie WR Aiyuk questionable with Hamstring

                   WR Sanders is now with New ORl

          AND SF dLINE banged up  DE Nick Bosa banged up, probable leg

Dee Ford Calf?

                  

Tb/N ORL -3.5, 49.5

Pass :  Too many questions:

New Orl starts slow typically

          1-11 ATS, 2-10 SU last 6 years

          Drew Brees:  How will he and team react

                   After offseason controversies

          Brady Debut:  How will his transition be?

 

Dal/RAMS+3

LIKE RAMS

          Laying -3 on the road vs. a team lined at 8.5wins

RAMS: Favorable: West Coast team late time start, 5:20 PST

Rams:  Revenge for blowout loss , Rams 21 DAL 45

Dallas OLINE injuries:

          C Frederick OUT (70)
                   T LA’el Collins OUT (HIP) 86.4

                   Out at least 3 weeks, was a top 5 tackle PFF

Current line:  Smith 77, Williams 61, Looney 58, Martin 88 Erving 45

 

MNF:  Pit -6 vs. NYG

Lean NYG

Unproven new coaches:  Pointspread tax is HUGE

Money has POURED in anti Car, Anti NYG

Pit has ALWAYS been a bad Road Favorite, 26-39 ATS since 2007 Tomlin

Just a lean:  I do think Car and NYG could REALLY struggle

Ten/Den  LIKE DEN if u can get +3

OVERREACTION to Von Miller OUT?

Denver has been favored

Now they are +2.5??
Denver has been awesome week 1 at home

17-3 SU, 13-5-2 ATS, I would think THIS year their edge is their highest ever……….with limited practices, no preseason……

 


Pick Creation Time:
09/10/2020 3:05 AM
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