NFL Fans UPDATE: Week1/2
KC: 16k fans
Mia: 13k fans
Dallas: Some fans
Clev:
6000 fans
Indy: 2500 fans
Jax:
17000 fans
IMPACT on
few/no fans
Hurts:
Sea, N Orl, Min the most……..
Least impacted: LA Chargers, Jax, Wash
However:
Will travel be more difficult for road
teams this year?
Especially unfamiliar travel …….with so many Covid
Restrictions………
Circa Contest Updates: as of end of August
Circa
Millions:
8/31 958
Entries
9/4 1312
9/6 1691
9/8 1994
(Need 3000
to meet Guarantee)
Circa Survivor:
8/31 414
Entries
9/4 534
9/6 700
9/8 812
(Need 1000 to meet Guarantee)
Millions
looks to be a likely overlay
Survivor
likely NO overlay
Million: Multiple Prizes, so more diversified
Survivor not nearly as attractive with only 1 prize
DIVISION LEANS:
Dallas:
Ideal Division:
Wash only
supposed to win 5 games, new coach, new QB
NYG: 6 wins, new coach, 2nd year QB
Philly: Hit hard with injuries
Dallas -135
to win Division, looks attractive
Det: The
‘last place team” that could win the division:
GB projected
to be down
13-3 was an aberration
Min
projected to be down
Lost starters in CB, and DL, and Diggs
Chic
Projected to be down
Det at 5-1
has a legit shot to win the Division
Key NFL injuries:
LV Raiders
WR Tryell Williams, IR, Labrum, out for year
He is Raiders No1 WR
Raiders to go with 2 Rookies as No1
Wrs
Now Raiders WRs are:
R Ruggs, R Bryan Edwards,
Hunter Renfroe (Slot), Agholor
Phi Eagles
Cluster Injuries:
WR:
No 2 WR
Jeffery OUT Indefinitely (foot)
Rookie WR
Reagor Doubtful (shoulder)
OL:
RG Brandon Brooks OUT
LT Andre Dillard OUT
T Lane Johnson, lower body,
Questionable
Also:
RB Miles Sanders: Probable (Lower Body)
QB Wentz, did not practice last
week, (soft tissue issue)
Chargers: 2 Key players
WR: Mike Williams OUT Shoulder (PFF 74.1)
Chargers: Only have 2 good WRs
No1 Keenan Allen, LY 1199 (11.5)
Mike Williams, LY 1001 (avg 20.4) likely out all September,
Shoulder
No 3 WR Moore is rated 57.6, 2 catches
last yr with Chargers
S Dervin
James OUT all Year KNEE (PFF grade 82.3)
Chargers Ss are rated
Jenkins 63.1 , Adderlay 42.6
Jets: WR
cluster Injuries:
Perriman, knee, ?, Knee
Rookie Mims, ?, hamstrung, has not
been able to practice
Dallas: OLINE
C Frederick retired
RT Collins OUT 3 weeks. HIP
NFL game notes: NFL week 1
Thursday: Hou/KC -9.5 54
Lean KC
Total
dropping with possible rain in forecast
Revenge game
for playoffs when hou lead 24-0, lost 31-51
Hou just traveled to KC their last gm
(advantage Hou… routine)
Hou WR: Cooks
? with QUAD, did not practice Tuesday
BIG deal with No3 WR Kenny Stills,
thin at WR
KC TE
Kelce: Prob knee, practiced Tuesday
“zig zag”
favors Houston……blowout loss last gm vs. KC
Stadium: 20% capacity fans
Mia/NE-6 43
PASS
Revenge for
NE week 17 loss 24-27 to Fitz
Both teams
5-4 SU last 9 games
BIG Q: How
long will it take Cam to be up to speed?
Ex Patriots on Mia 3 starters join FAs
Kyle Van Noy EDGE, Elondon Roberts LB,
Center Ted Karras all FA
Edge Mia?
Clev/Balt-8 49
Clev: Got to
see Lamar Jackson 3x now
2019: Clev
40 BALT 25
Balt 31 CLEV 15
2018: Clev 24
BALT 26 Week 17
The Big
Question: Will Jackson keep running so
much:
Lamar Jackson, no 6 rusher in NFL,
1206 yards (6.9 avg)
Clev: New Coach Stefanski, disadvantage
Balt: No1 team In rushes, adv, BUT it is a timing
running offense
So maybe not as much
Balt: UNDERVALUED?
Clear cut best team for much of yr?
Jets/Buf -6.5 LEAN BUF
Two
defensive games last year:
Buf 17 JETS
16
Jets 13 BUF
6
Jets: Lose 2 best defenders:
S adams Traded LB CJ Mosely opts out
Jets WR
issues: Perriman Knee, Probable, no practice since Aug
Mims, hamstring, Probable, missed 2
weeks practice, back Wed
Jets: New
OLINE, no wrs, big issues for Darnold
vs. Elite Buf D
LV -3.1/Car 48
LEAN
CAROLINA
I think this is all anti-Car money,
not pro Raider money
Carolina team with least stability
New Unproven HC: Matt Rhule
New Coordinators, including
unproven DC Snow
New
QB: Bridgewater
8 of 11 new starters D
Raiders: Key injury:
No 1 WR Tryell Williams out
Go with Renfro, and rookies (Ruggs,
Edwards)
Sea-1.5 /ATL 49
Lean SEA
9.5 win team
at a 7.5 win team
Line should
be ‘4.6’ on a neutral…….
Early start
time NOT AS BIG A DEAL
No preseason games with NIGHTTIME
starts
That always made it more difficult
EARLY in year to play 10am PST
The Big Question:
Does the ATL def improvement carryover with Raheem Morris?
Atl 1-7 then 6-2 last yr.
LY : Sea 27 ATL 20
Matt Schaub played entire game.
Sea lead 24-0 at half…..
Philly -6 /Wash 43
LIKE WASH +6
Huge matchup
edge Wash: Wash DL vs. injured Philly
Oline
Wash: Had 2
leads Last year vs. phily
Lost week 1 up 20-7, lost 27-32
Lost week 15 up 27-24 with :30
left……..yet lost 27-37
Philly
Injuries:
Lineman: Brooks, Dillard
OUT
Shuffled Oline
in Covid year…..not good
WRs:
Jeffery indefinitely, R Reagor OUT week1
Rb:
Sanders ?... has missed 2 weeks of practice
Chic/Det -3, 44.5
Line says
Det IS the better team
Det lost
Stafford 2h year and RB Kerryon Johnson
Det double
revenge, lost 2 close games with Driskell and Blough LY
Chic QB: Trusbisky named starter
Chic RB: Montgomery:
Strained Groin, questionable, groin has not practiced in 2 weeks, bears have no
good backup
Indy-8/Jax 45
Does Jax start like Mia did last year?
Mia players had a 2 week “lack of
effort” start after it was clear that winning that year was not a priority. Do we
see a similar start for Jax?
Rivers did
CRUSH Jax last year
Dec 8,
Chargers 45 JAX 10
Rivers: 16/22 314 3/0
Blowout
Revenge for Indy
Indy 20 JAX 38 Week 17
Weather: 86 degreees, 60% rain
GB/Min -2.5, 46
Line move
through the 3
Kirk Cousins
gets his preferred 10 am Start time
Will Cousins
be ok without Diggs ?
WR1 Thielin WR2 Justin Jefferson R
from LSU
What is Rodgers mind set? GB swept Min last year
Min 16 GB 21
(Min had 421 yards, Gb 335)
MIN 10 gb 23
(HELD MIN TO 139 yards!)
Chargers -3.25/Cincy 44
LIKE CIN if you can get +3.5
Chargers: Key injuries both sides of ball
S Derwyn
James OUT FOR YEAR
No 1 WR
Williams: Game time decision
HUGE loss, 1001 yards, AND had
20.4/catch!
Chargers have Keenan Allen, and very
little else at WR
Bengals:
Should improve at Offense
AJ Green out all year 2019
Boyd/Aj Green/Mixon solid Skill
players!
Az/SF -7 47.5 LIKE
Az +7
Az: Offense
very successful ly vs. SF
Scored 25 in both games
Team covered both games with their
offense
Murray should be better with Hopkins
SF: WR issues No1
Samuel Questionable with Foot
Rookie WR Aiyuk questionable
with Hamstring
WR Sanders is now with New
ORl
AND SF dLINE banged up DE Nick Bosa banged up, probable leg
Dee Ford
Calf?
Tb/N ORL -3.5, 49.5
Pass : Too many questions:
New Orl
starts slow typically
1-11 ATS, 2-10 SU last 6 years
Drew Brees: How
will he and team react
After offseason controversies
Brady Debut: How will his transition be?
Dal/RAMS+3
LIKE RAMS
Laying -3 on the road vs. a team lined
at 8.5wins
RAMS: Favorable: West Coast team late time start, 5:20 PST
Rams: Revenge for
blowout loss , Rams 21 DAL 45
Dallas OLINE injuries:
C Frederick
OUT (70)
T LA’el Collins OUT
(HIP) 86.4
Out
at least 3 weeks, was a top 5 tackle PFF
Current line: Smith
77, Williams 61, Looney 58, Martin 88 Erving 45
MNF: Pit -6 vs.
NYG
Lean NYG
Unproven new
coaches: Pointspread tax is HUGE
Money has
POURED in anti Car, Anti NYG
Pit has
ALWAYS been a bad Road Favorite, 26-39 ATS since 2007 Tomlin
Just a lean: I do think Car and NYG could REALLY struggle
Ten/Den LIKE
DEN if u can get +3
OVERREACTION
to Von Miller OUT?
Denver has
been favored
Now they are +2.5??
Denver has been awesome week 1 at home
17-3 SU, 13-5-2 ATS, I would think THIS year their edge is
their highest ever……….with limited practices, no preseason……