9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT / #761-762Houston Rockets vs Portland Trailblazers
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL / (Optimum OU line: 244 or more points)…
Thanks for joining us yesterday. We finally came back from 5 frigging months of NO Basketball. And our goal as we head into post-season play is finding VALUE with the LINE. Last night, it was on UNDER 236.5 points in the Pelicans / Grizzlies game. That outline was pretty much never in doubt. Final score was just 109 to 99. We cased a nice EASY one by -28.5 points. In our search for the best OU line VALUE on Tuesday, we’re heading to the last game on the schedule… as the ROCKETS take on the TRAILBLAZERS at 9:00 pm ET. We already know that there will be plenty of people on the OVER in this one. Those squares just might boost this line to 245 or more points tonight. So let’s monitor the line movement and strike when the line reaches the zenith. OU bettors are gonna look at these teams and see a ton of offensive potential… and yes, there certainly IS when you look at the Bubble results thus far. Houston: 302 combined points in their opener vs Dallas (in OT)… and 236 versus the Bucks two days ago. Portland: 275 combined points vs Grizzlies (also in OT) and 252 points vs the Celtics two days ago. While the Blazers have looked strong on offense, POSSESSIONS per game are still on the low side (only 99.6 in their two contests). We also knew that Portland does indeed play with a slower overall tempo on offense when Just Nurkic is on the court. Houston night want to push the pace of play tonight, but don’t look for Portland to follow suit. They will be content to slow things down a little. Hopefully, just enough for us to cash another OU winner. A quick peak off the recent series history points us in the right direction. This Houston / Portland SERIES has gone 1-6 O/U in the last seven meetings. The average OU MARGIN in those games is actually in the DOUBLE DIGIT range (-11.3 points per game).
It’s nice to have an up-to-date DATABASE when it comes to ‘sealing the deal’. Just like we mentioned yesterday: There have been EIGHT games since the resumption of play with HIGH Over / Under lines of 229 or more points (like tonight). Those games have already gone 1-7 O/U….
Speaking of HIGH OU lines: In this l-o-n-g current 2019-2020 season (since way back in November), there has been 18 total games with EXTREMELY high Over / Under lines of GREATER than (>) 241 points. Those games have gone 4-14 O/U this season (78% Unders). And for a ‘tightener’: Thee games have gone 90% UNDER the Total (1-9 O/U) when the POINTSPREAD is 7 or less points (Houston is currently -4 to -4.5)….
So with both teams of some pretty good offensive results as of late (Hou: 153 + 120 pts / Port: 140 + 124 pts), I also ran a separate database query. The results look pretty good for us UNDER bettors:
5-18-2 O/U ALL-TIME in our database (since 1990): All non-division CONFERENCE games when BOTH teams scored 120 > points in EACH of their last two games (Rockets + Blazers), and the OU Line is 223 or more points.