Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder3*** BEST BET on: UNDER the TOTAL
#553-554 / 8:05pm ET / 5:05pm PT
After two ‘OVER’ winners in the last two days (Hawks/Hornets and Clippers/Warriors), we’re switching gears on Wednesday and Going LOW in the Northwest Division game between the Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder. A series that has gone 56-90 O/U ALL-TIME… and 12-29 O/U since the 2011/2012 season. Even more pertinent is the extreme recent play between these two teams. In the last 12 months, the Jazz and Thunder have played each other three times. Average OU line: 217.8… Combined points in those three games: only 187, 195, and 194. That means the average OU margin is an UNDER-whelming -25.8 points per game! And we already know that NBA games in the NORTHWEST DIVISION have gone 3-10-1 O/U this season (and 1-6 O/U since Jan) when the pointspread is a LOW 4 or less points (Ok City is -2 tonight). With both teams amongst the BEST in the Western Conference this season, it’s pretty easy to decide which is the RIGHT side when it comes to Individual TEAM Totals.The UTAH JAZZ have gone 3-15-1 O/U in their last 19 games versus all .600 or better CONFERENCE opponents when the OU line is 213 or more. And for OKLAHOMA CITY, it all depends on the quality of their foe when finding an OU angle. While the THUNDER are a great OVER teams against shitty opponents (12-4 O/U L16 vs sub-.500 teams), we note that they are also 1-7 O/U in their last eight games versus WINNING (> .500) Conference opponents…
As long as we are talking about Conference games involving very good teams, guess what comes back into play tonight? Our FAVORITE 2nd-half-of-the-season UNDER situation. We used this situation just three days ago in the Clippers vs Lakers game, and cashed the UNDER by double digits. So here’s the updated numbers from our database:
(1) 27-68-2 O/U last 5 years / 2-13 O/U since January of this season: All GAME 45 or greater same-CONFERENCE games when (a) Both teams have a current W/L percentage of .625 or better (Jazz: .640 / Thunder: .625). Already in THIS current season, these games have gone 1-8 O/U when the OU Line is 219 or less points…
As is always the case, we also ran a query in regards to tonight’s REST situation. Utah’s last game was on Monday (lost to the Raptors) while Ok City’s last game was on Sunday (beat the Celtics).
(2) 4-18-1 O/U last 5 years: All DIVISION home favorites of < 7 pts (Ok City) in a ‘2/1’ REST situation, when the OU Line is less than (<) 227 points…
The host Thunder just wrapped up a three-game NON CONFERENCE road trip (vs Detroit, New York, and Boston).
(3) 1-13 O/U last 2 years: All GAME 32 or greater WESTERN CONFERENCE home favorites of < 3 pts (Thunder), of 3 or more NON-CONF road games in a row…
Up next for the hist Thunder is ANOTHER division home game (on Friday vs Minnesota).
(4) 3-25 O/U last 5 years: All Conference teams in the FIRST of back-to-back DIVISION home games (Thunder), when the OU line is in the range of 205 to 233 points…
As mentioned above, Utah just hosted the Toronto Raptors on Monday night. In that non-conference game, the Jazz were favorites of -6 points and lost by NINE points (101 to 92).
(5) 1-8 O/U last 12 months: All NBA teams off a SU non-conf home LOSS of 6 > pts in a game in which they were favored by -6 > pts (Jazz).
Utah’s point output of only 92 points on Monday was their 2nd lowest-scoring game of the season.
(6) 0-6 O/U since December: All NBA road teams off a home game in which they scored 92 or LESS points (Jazz), when the OU line is in the range of > 21s and < 247 points.
So Ok City is off a low-scoring win of 105 to 104 over Boston (game went UNDER by -9 pts) and Utah is off a low-scoring loss of 101 to 92 versus Toronto (game went UNDER by -31 points).
(7) 2-14 O/U since 2104: All GAME 15 or greater home FAVS of < 11 pts when BOTH teams scored AND allowed 105 or less points in their last game (Thunder vs Jazz), when the OU line is greater than 217 points.