LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS @ GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
10:35pm ET / 7:35pm PT
TNT TV / #545-546…
We’ve been on multiple Clipper UNDERS since the All-Star break, and they have responded with a WINNER for us twice in the last seven days (vs Houston last Thursday and vs LA Lakers last Sunday). With that said, we’re switching gears on Tuesday and going the other way as they invade the Bay Area to take on the Warriors. And why not? They have good vibes when taking on their fellow division rivals. This Warriors / Clippers SERIES has gone 10-3 O/U in the last 13 regular season meetings. Even more pertinent: the last seven in this series played IN Oakland have gone 6-1 O/U… with an average margin of +16.5 points per game. That includes a game earlier this season in which the Clippers won by the score of 141 to 122 (OVER cashed by +33.5 points!)…
Los Angeles is the ‘chalkiest’ team on the large nine game Tuesday NBA schedule. At last look, the Clips were laying -11.5 points on the road in this one. So our first dive into the database looks at game in which the road team is extremely CHALKY.
(1) 15-3 O/U last four years: All NBA big road favorites of -11 or MORE points when playing off a SU Loss (CLIPPERS), when the OU line is > 232 points. These games have already gone a perfect 3-0 O/U in THIS current 2019/2020 season… with an average margin of +16.8 points per game (!)…
Next up, a database query in regards to tonight’s REST situation. Golden State’s last game was on Saturday, as they beat the Sixers 118-114 (2 days of rest). Meanwhile, LA just played on Sunday and lost to the Lakers (1 day of rest).
(2) 6-0 O/U since November: All DIVISION underdogs of > 4 points in a ‘2/1’ REST situation (WARRIORS)…
Golden State comes into this one with ATS ‘covers’ in each of their last three games.
(3) 8-1 O/U since November: All NBA home dogs of +5 > pts playing off 3 or more ATS wins in a row (WARRIORS), when the OU lime is 214 > points…
Each of Golden State’s last two home games have gone OVER the Total. And both in NON-Conference play. Thursday vs the Raptors (113-121 / OU line was 228.5)… and Saturday vs Sixers (118-114 / OU line was 219.5).
(4) 18-3-1 O/U last 2 years / 9-1-1 O/U last 12 months: All Underdogs of > 1 points off back-to-back NON-CONFERENCE home ‘OVERS’, when the OU Line is 240 or less points (WARRIORS)…
LA was a DIVISION home fav of -2.5 in Sunday’s loss to the Lakers.
(5) 10-2 O/U last 2 years: All division ROAD teams off a SU division HOME FAV loss (CLIPPERS), when the OU line is > 216 points…
The 43-20 Clippers (.682 winning percentage) lost that game to the Lakers by NINE points on Sunday.
(6) 6-0 O/U since January: All .667 or better road FAVS of -3 > pts off a SU home fav LOSS of 8 or more points (CLIPPERS).
Here’s a variation of that last query. In this one, we look at very good teams off a loss against a very good opponent. And the sample size is much longer (3 years).
(7) 10-1 O/U last 3 years: All .667 or better road FAVS off a SU loss vs a .6667 or better opponent (CLIPPERS), when the OU line is > 217 points. In same-CONFERENCE play, our numbers improve to a perfect 8-0 O/U…
All sharp OU bettors are aware that the Clippers have gone UNDER the Total in EACH of their last three games. So there might be a hesitancy to pull the trigger and go the other way tonight. That’s understandable. With that said, I ran a recent database query. And the results tell us to INDEED go the other way. In fact, the Atlanta Hawks were in this very same situation last night against the Hornets. We bet the OVER in that one too, and cashed an easy winner. So here are the up-to-date recent results:
12-2 O/U since November: ALL NBA teams w/ an OU line of 233 < points off 3 straight ‘UNDERS’ when the line in those last three games was 225 or more pts (CLIPPERS OU Line last three: 226.5 / 236.0 / 228.5).