CHARLOTTE HORNETS @ ATLANTA HAWKS 2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
7:35pm ET / 4:35pm PT
#523-524
We’re starting the new week with an OU Play in tonight’s Southeast Division game between the ATLANTA HAWKS and CHARLOTTE HORNETS. We FINALLY get a ‘manageable’ OU line when it comes to the Hawks. It seems like they’ve even stuck up in the 235 to 245 range all season long. But after three straight ‘Unders’ in a row, we’re getting some VALUE with a Monday line in the low 220’s. And speaking of the OU line, we’re not gonna bury the lead. The HAWKS have gone 12-2 O/U since January when the OU line is 234 or less points. Not only that, but in Atlanta’s last 10 CONFERENCE home games, they have gone a PERFECT 10-0 O/U… with an average OU margin in those games of +21.3 points! We also know that this Hawks / Hornets SERIES has gone 3-1 O/U in the last four meetings… and 6-2 O/U in the last eight… including a PERFCT 4-0 O/U in the last four played IN Atlanta (and by an average margin of +21.5 points per game. Total combined points in those last four in Atlanta: 233 pts… 246 pts… 247 pts… and 249 pts!
Our first database query has us looking for any OU PATTERNS within this particular division. And it looks pretty good for OVER bettors.
(1) 27-10-1 O/U last 3 years: All SOUTHEAST DIVISION games in the NBA when (a) the HOST is favored by < 9 points (ATLANTA is -4) and (b) the OU line is greater than 210 points. In this 2019/2012 season alone, these division games have already gone 8-1 O/U… with an average margin of +17.4 points per game!
Charlotte is off a big home underdog win. On Saturday, they were +8.5 at home vs the Rockets, and won outright by NINE points.
(2) 6-0 O/U last 5 years: All NBA road underdogs of < 11 points off a SU non-conference home WIN in which they were a DOG of +8 or more points (HORNETS)…
We also ran a query for team that just played the Rockets in the last game. And we want to Go HIGH if this in-season pattern repeats itself.
(3) 15-3 O/U since December: All NBA road teams who played the HOUSTON ROCKETS in their last game (HORNETS)…
As mentioned above, Atlanta has gone UNDER in each of their last three games.
(4) 7-0 O/U last 2 years: All NBA home teams off (a) back-to-back SU and ATS losses in their last two games and (b) ‘UNDERS’ in their last two games (HAWKS)…
So the Hawks are in a rare (for them) home ‘chalk’ situation after losing there straight games in a row.
(5) 15-1 O/U last 12 months: All Eastern Conference home FAVORITES off 3 or more SU losses in a row (HAWKS), when the OU line is 218 or more points…
Atlanta is off SIX straight games in a row in which the OU line was 235 or more points. Tonight’s line is more than 100 ppg LESS.
(6) 18-4 O/U since January: All NBA home teams with an OU line of 226 or less points off an ‘UNDER’ when the OU in win that last game was 230 or more points (HAWKS).
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