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2020-03-08T00:35:00.000Z 2020-03-08T00:35:00.000Z - NBA

567 Denver Nuggets
vs.
568 Cleveland Cavaliers

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

03/07/2020

NBA Totals

OV DEN/CLE

102-104

218

3

L

-330

Analysis
DENVER NUGGETS @ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL
#567-568 / 7:35pm ET / 4:35pm PT

Another Non-Conference game in which the visitor is laying sizable points… and the OU line is in a very manageable range. That’s tonight’s Nuggets @ Cavaliers game in Cleveland. In the 2nd half of this season, these games have been MONEY on the BANK for ‘OVER’ bettors. It just happened again LAST night, when the Ok City Thunder (as road ‘chalk’) went OVER in their big win against the Knicks. But before we get into that KEY database situation, we are compelled to track each team statistically throughout this entire 2019/2020 season. The later we get in the year, the better the results for OVER bettors. First off, let’s check out the road favorite Nuggets on offense in a month-by-month comparison. DENVER: 106.0 ppg in October, 107.0 ppg in November, 110.0 ppg in December, 112.3 ppg in January, 114.9 ppg in February, and 115.7 ppg in this current month of March! And sharp OU bettors are also aware that Denver stopped playing good defense a long time ago. Here’s their Defensive Efficiency on a month-by-moth basis: 99.8 pts allowed per 100 possessions in November, 106.8 in December, 110.5 in January, 112.9 in February, and 115.3 in this current month of March. For the entire season, Denver stands at #13 in overall Defensive Efficiency. BUT, those numbers have fallen to #20 in their last 15 games… #28 in their last 10 games, and #29 (2nd WORST in the league) in their last five games (119.5 pts allowed per game). With numbers like that it’s NO SURPRISE that the NUGGETS are now on a current 22-9 O/U run since December, and 9-1 O/U in their last ten games. Also 11-2 in NON-CONFERENCE play during this same time span, including a PERFCT 7-0 O/U when favored by 11 or less points. For the home team, we already know what we have in the Cleveland Cavaliers. the 2ndf WOIRST team in terms of Defensive Efficiency for the entire season. But check out their REGRESSION on a month-by-month basis. It’s just as bad as their opponents. CLEVELAND: 109.3 pts allowed per 100 possessions in October, 113.1 in November, 115.1 in January, 117.4 in February, and 119.0 in this current month of March. And let’s also remind the OU bettors that Cleveland’s OFFENSE os UP by +7.5 points per ga e tase days compared to the first full month of the season (November). So with numbers like those, it’s also no surprise that the CAVS are on a 20-11-1 O/U since January, including 13-3-1 O/U when playing at home. When I was handicapping this game all day on Friday, an OU line was still not posted. I anticipated a line of about 225 to 228 would be the opener. I was VERY surprised (pleasantly as well) when the line came out this morning at only 218 points. So get you play in ASAP in a game that has tremendous OVER the Total potential…

I mentioned last night’s THUNDER @ KNICKS game in the first paragraph of this writeup. And the fact that it sent Over the Total in a situation which has been GREAT over the last few months. When non-conference teams are laying sizable points on the road, the OVER has been very sold as of late. But that was not the case earlier in the season. In fact, these games actually went 68% UNDER the Total in the first few months. This OU ‘reversal’ perfectly illustrates how things can go from Cold to Hot over the course of a long 5-6 month season. So here’s the ‘early vs late’ comparison from our database. 
(1) In November and December, NON-CONFERENCE road favorites with an OU line of 231 or less went 10-21 O/U to start the year. But since late January, these games have now gone 18-6 O/U (with the Ok City / New York OVER cashing last night). When these teams are favored by MORE than (>) 5 points (DENVER is currently -9.5 in this one, he results improve to 31-15-1 O/U got the entire season… and 25-9 O/U since December. Finally, when the OU Line in these games is in the range of 217 to 231 points the results get even BETTER… to 12-1 O/U… 

A review of the rest situation also points us in the right direction. 
(2) 10-2 O/U this season: All non-conference home DOGS in a ‘2/1’ REST situation (CAVS vs NUGGETS)…  

Don’t look now, but Denver has failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games. 
(3) 23-8 O/U since December: All non-division ROAD teams off 3 or more ATS losses in a row (NUGGETS). This ALSO applied in the Thunder @ Knicks game last night (that also went OVER). The numbers improve to 13-2 O/U since January for all teams who are > .400 on the season in terms of W/L percentage…

Especially revealing to us was the fact that Denver allowed more than 110 points t0 the league’s most INEFFICIENT offense on Thursday Night. That would be the piss=poor Charlotte Hornets, who have been struggling big-time as of late who an average of only 92.1 points scored per 100 possessions.  
(4) 10-1 O/U last 4 years: All Non-Conference ROAD teams off a SU non-conf road win BUT and ATS loss in which they scored AND allowed 110 or more points (DENVER)…

We are certainly aware that Cleveland is on a multiple game LOSING streak (what else is new?) and a multiple game ‘OVER’ streak. Inputting those results into our database reveals: 
(5) 12-2 O/U since January / 7-0 O/U since February: All non-division underdogs off (a) 3 or more SU losses in a row (CAVALIERS)… and (b) 3 or more ‘OVERS’ in a row, when the OU line is 213 or more points.
Pick Creation Time:
03/07/2020 8:34 AM
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