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2020-03-04T00:05:00.000Z 2020-03-04T00:05:00.000Z - NBA

501 San Antonio Spurs
vs.
502 Charlotte Hornets

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

03/03/2020

NBA Totals

UN SA/CHA

103-104

212

2

W

200

Analysis

San Antonio Spurs @ Charlotte Hornets 
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL 
#501-502 / 7:05pm ET / 4:05pm PT 

We’re Going LOW (again) in a Tuesday non-conference game that’s eerily similar to last night’s winner in the Mavs @ Bulls game. In fact, the main query from our database puts us in the exact same situation as last night’s game. A Western Conference team playing with No Rest and laying points on the non-conference road against a poor opponent. In this case, the offensively-challenged Charlotte Hornets. A team that’s ranked SECOND LAST (#31) in Offensive Efficiency for the season, and DEAD LAST over their last 15 games. In addition, the host Hornets have been playing at a snail’s pace since we flipped the calendar in January. In fact, BOTH of these teams are ranked in the bottom quarter the league in Pace of Play over their last ten games (San Ant: 99.1 possessions per game / Char: 95.9). Charlotte’s been on another level in their last 30 days to boot. They come into this one on a current 1-7 O/U streak in their last eight games. Even more important (given the small sample size) is their OU MARGIN during this current streak: -17.0 points per game! So it’s no wonder that the OU Line in this one is going down here on gameday (opened at 214 / now at 212 as of 1:00pm ET)… 

As mentioned above, our first database query is the exact same one as last night’s game. It worked for us on Monday. Let’s play it again on Tuesday. 
(1) 0-9 O/U last 2 seasons: All Non-Conference road FAVORITES in a ‘0/1’ REST situation (San Antonio @ Charlotte), when the OU line is < 226 points… 

Charlotte’s piss-poor offense was held to just 85 points at home against the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday (and also HELD Milwaukee to only 93). 
(2) 1-10 O/U last 4 years: All Eastern Conference teams who scored 85 < pts at HOME in their last game (Charlotte), versus any opponent off a SU loss (San Antonio), when the OU line is 211 or more points…  

Believe it or not, but the 21-39 Hornets are actually on a 3-game ATS winning streak (Covered vs Milw, Tor, and NY in last 3 games). 
(3) 1-9 O/U since November: All non-division home dogs of 6 < pts off 3 or more ATS wins in a row (Hornets)… 

We also ran a query for that underrated Charlotte DEFENSE (#3 in Def efficiency L8 games), which has allowed only 93 pts, 96 pts, and 101 pts in their last three games. 
(4) 1-9-1 O/U since 2010: All Eastern Conference home dogs who allowed 101 or les pts in EACH of their last 3 games when the OU line is > 210 pts (Hornets), versus any non-division opponent (Spurs)… 

We’re aware that San Antonio is still trending OVER the Total these days (36-22 O/U TY / 8-2 O/U last 10). With that said, a look at their last two games provides us with some good UNDER value. 
(5) 1-8-1 O/U last 5 years: All Western Conference favorites off a SU home DOG loss in which they scored AND allowed 110 > pts (Spurs lost to Indiana 116-111 last night), when the OU line is 236 < points… 
(6) 1-12 O/U last 2 years: All non-division ROAD teams off back-to-back non-division HOME ATS losses in which they scored and allowed 110 > pts in each game (Spurs)… 

This late-season period is a good one for UNDERS when both teams are below .500 on the year (amongst other things). 
(7) 4-20-1 O/U last 5 years: All GAME 55 or greater NON-CONFERENCE games when (a) the road team is FAVORED and (b) BOTH teams are < .500 on the season, and (c) the OU lime is a mid-to-low 217 or less points (Spurs @ Hornets).
Pick Creation Time:
03/03/2020 10:01 AM
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