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PLAY: UNDER Memphis/Cincy
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
We use 3 CBB Models, all developed differently to pick different ways. They help us SPOT Potential Totals and all 3 have agreed that this number is too high. It is not the only thing we use but it is a starting point. We also use techniques that as far as I know have not yet been discovered by others including books. While these are not fail proof techniques they have been very profitable over the last few years. We also use offensive and defensive efficiency numbers, pace, projected pace, venue trends, league and division trends, injuries, along with other more "Standard" Handicapping Principles to get our final number and possibly make a play rated at 1* 2* and 3*.
Huge game in the AAC and we love the UNDER here for 3*. Huge Trends for this one including the fact that Memphis is 9-1 UNDER last 10 road games. It is mostly because the Tigers have struggled traveling scoring points and especially against good defensive teams. That is what Cincy is and the fact is Memphis is #12 out of 353 D1 Teams for Defensive Efficiency as well. UNDER is 4-1 the last 5 Head to Head Match-ups including a 60-47 affair back in Memphis earlier this season. We actually have a strong lean for the Bearcats to cover this number as well but the UNDER is by far the best bet here. Handicapping games based on Tempo is not always the best thing to do and this is one of those games. Let's play UNDER at 3* at your best number..
Late Morning Note: This number is slightly down from the open but a 3* Play MUCH Lower than what is posted. 135.5 or Better is Good here..