1-star (642) INDIANA -2.5 over Purdue. 2:00pm ET.
After 3 straight losses and a full week to prepare, I feel this is a
good spot to back the Hoosiers. Meanwhile, we're catching a Purdue team
off an incredible 38-point win over Iowa earlier in the week. However,
the Boilers have been a completely different
team away from home this season at just 2-6 straight-up in true road
games (one win over Ohio, the other over a bad Northwestern team), with
the fourth-worst record ATS record in college basketball (1-6-1). After
going through the 150-game card, this is one of my favorite
plays...therefore, we're upgrading.
Lean (742) NORTH CAROLINA +8 (-115) over Duke. 6:00pm ET.
I thought we might catch +10 here and if that were the case, this would
have been my top play of the day. Regardless, this is still the biggest
home underdog role for North Carolina since at least 2006! The Tar
Heels are 7-15 ATS this season, one of the worst teams in the country
ATS wise, but that has created some value as they are 4-1 ATS their last
5 games. I thought the Heels competed well at Florida State earlier
this week and remember they got Cole Anthony back, their best player who
averages 20 ppg. Anthony missed 11 games and the Heels went just 4-7 SU
without him. I believe if NC is going to get up for any game down the
stretch, it's this one.
Lean (307630) LOYOLA-MARYLAND -2.5 over Bucknell. 5:00pm ET. We
have a situation here where a small-conference team is not being
properly priced in the market place due to a recent return of a key
player. Loyola is just 2-8 SU in their last 10 games. However, in their
last two games they got back Santi Aldama, a 6-foot-11 center who is the
highest rated player
(4-star) to ever sign at Loyola. Aldama underwent knee surgery in
November and was thought to be out for the season. Since his return,
Loyola is 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS and he’s
averaging 11 ppg and 4.5 rpg and is only playing 22 minutes. Expect his
minutes to increase here and therefore I think there is great value.