2** OVER THE TOTAL CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ DETROIT PISTONS
Monday, Jan. 27th / 7:05pm ET / 4:05pm PT / #527-528…
The month of January is almost over. With that said, the top three teams in the league in terms of OVERS this month have been the CLEVELAND CAVALIERS, DETROIT PISTONS, and NEW ORLEANS PELICANS. All three teams have gone 10-3 O/U so far this month. And obviously, TWO of those three teams will be playing each other tonight. One thing that jumped out at me while I was doing the research for this week’s Playbook Basketball newsletter is the recent surge of OVERS in this Central Division series. In the last two seasons, the CAVALIERS and PISTONS have gone a perfect 6-0 O/U in the last six meetings versus each other. Average OU margin in those games: +11.0 points per game! We’ve certainly got enough TEAM OU Trends to justify a play on the OVER. In addition to their HOT run of OVERS this month, the CAVALIERS are 9-1 O/U on the road versus all .400 or worse opponents… 5-1 O/U in a ‘1/1’ REST situation… 5-1 O/U in Monday road games… 4-0 O/U off a double-digit home loss… 6-1 O/U as conference dogs of +6 > pts. Meanwhile, the PISTONS are 9-1 O/U at home versus any .400 or worse opponent… 4-0 O/U in a ‘1/1’ REST situation versus any Conference opponent… 10-1 O/U in their last 11 roles as FAVORITES of > 1 pt… and 8-2 O/U in Monday home games…
Our first two database queries look at the ‘1/1’ REST situation for each team…
(1) 13-3 O/U this season: All same-DIVISION home favorites of > 8 pts in a ‘1/1 REST situation (PISTONS vs CAVALIERS…
(2) Better Still: 12-1 O/U since December for all MONDAY games in a ‘1/1 REST situation, when the pointspread is less than (<) 9 points and the OU line is 222 or less pts…
The visiting Cavaliers are off THREE straight home losses in a row.
15-3 O/U last 12 months / 6-0 O/U since Christmas: All NBA Game 75 or less ROAD teams off 3 straight HOME losses in a row (CLEVELAND).
In fact, all three of those Cavalier recent losses were by double-digits EACH (118-106, 124-112, 106-86).
8-0 O/U last 12 months: All NBA road teams off 3 or more DOUBLE DIGIT losses in a row (CLEVELAND)…
Detroit’s Saturday loss to Brooklyn was in OVERTIME.
Already THIS season, NBA home favorites of > 2 points off a non-division HOME overtime game (DETROIT) have gone a perfect 7-0 O/U…
Both of these teams come in with pretty bad W/L percentages on the season (Detroit: .361 / Cleveland: .260).
12-2 O/U already THIS season: All NBA home favorites of > 1 pt when BOTH teams have a current W/L percentage of .375 or worse (DETROIT vs CLEVELAND), and BOTH teams are on at least ONE day of rest, when the OU line is < 229 points…
So Detroit is off three straight ‘Overs’ in a row while Cleveland is off two straight ‘Overs’.
9-1-1 O/U since 2004: All DIVISION home favorites of < 12 pts off 3 or more home OVERS in a row (DETROIT) versus any opponent off 2 or more OVERS in a row (CLEVELAND).
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