PLAYER PROP(s)

3* 6 POINT TEASER: KC -1/SF -1-120 (Look for books that still let you lay -110!)

- What the Titans are doing is something we have not seen in the modern era, and I don't think we see this style of play winning them the conference against a Chiefs team that could be one of the best teams we have seen in the last few years. Ryan Tannehill has yet to throw for over 6.3 YPA in the post season, and the titans have the second lowest scoring rate of any team this post season.

The Titans past 24 offensive scores have been touchdowns ( they have not even attempted a field goal since week 15). Their red zone offense success is unsustainable. Under Tannehill, the Titans red zone offense is converting a first down or touchdown on third or fourth down on 85.7% of their tries, while the league average is 40.2% (credit Rich Hribar for that stat). The Chiefs rank 6th in red zone defense.

The Chiefs have won seven straight games, all by 7 points or more. In those games, teams are scoring touchdowns on the lowest rate of possessions in the league against the Chiefs defense. 

The 49ers have been dominate at home this season, leading the league with a +119 scoring differential and are 2nd in YPP differential at home. Green Bay on the road is 29th in net YPP differential. They are the leagues most overrated team, as they are ranked only 15th in weighted DVOA rankings, have been outgained on the season, and are an unsustainable 9-1 SU in close games. 

In their earlier matchup this season, San Francisco held Green Bay to the second lowest YPP in the Rodgers era, and that was when they were without DE Dee Ford and MLB Kwon Alexander. It was not a fluke, as Rodgers has struggled against elite pass rush teams all season. In 6 games against defenses ranked top 12 in pressure rate, the Green Bay offense scored on only 29.6% of their possessions. 

KC/SF super bowl coming!