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2020-01-12T23:40:00.000Z 2020-01-12T23:40:00.000Z - NFL

307 Seattle Seahawks
vs.
308 Green Bay Packers

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

01/12/2020

NFL Sides

Packers

28-23

-4

2

W

200

Analysis
2 STARS PROPS:

Sea WILSON Rushing Yards OVER 27, 2 stars

GB Adams Receiving Yards,  OVER 82, 2 stars

Hou KC -10, 51

KC STRONG LEAN

KC is UNDERRATED

KC IMPROVED Defense: D giving up 11.5 points per game last 6 games

New DC Steve Spagnuolo continues to improve

          Last 6 Games (6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS) 17,9,16, 3,3,21)

                   Although this WAS against a schedule of avg/poor offenses

And KC played many games without a healthy Mahomes

          3 games with Matt Moore

          And 3 games with a clearly hobbled Mahomes                         

KC  10-0 in their other games

          Ave win by 14 points in those 10 games

          4-0 Weeks 1-4 (Ave win 10.25)

          6-0 Last 6 games (Ave win 16.33)

                   Weeks 5-6 Mahomes Ankle Injury

                   Weeks 7-9 Matt Moore

                   Week 10 Mahomes 1st game back with kneecap, @ Ten

 

 

Hou: OVERRATED
                   Now 9-3 in Close game (all decided by 7 or less)

Hou:   Not as Good without  a healthy WR Will Fuller

No 2 WR Fuller missed last week.  Watson is 1.5 yards/pass play worse in his career without him.

That difference is the difference between the No12 passes and the WORST passer in the league…

HC O’Brien says he is a game time Decision……

Fuller has been OUT since Week15 (groin)

Key Question: Can Hou Protect Watson?

          Buffalo Sacked him 7x last week!

          KC D:  2.8 Sacks per game (12th in league)

          KC D:  FO Adjusted Sack Rate (10th in league)

Hou: OLINE ISSUES:

          Tunsil: Banged up with an ankle injury

Tunsil graded out poorly lw: PFF grade 52 (60-69 graded is a backup!)              

Titus Howard: Been OUT since Week 9


********   STRONG LEAN KC OVER 2.5 sacks

       

 

 

Sea/ GB -4.5  46.5

LIKE GB

Sea:  OVERRATED:

          11-2 in close games (decided by 1 score)

          Sea only outscored opponents by 7 points in regular season

          11-2 in close games (decided by 1 score)

                   THAT is the only reason they are 12-5 SU! 

Sea’s:  Playoff win was vs. a Philly team without Wentz for 3.5 quarters

 

And Sea’s RB Issues are HUGE

          Going with No4 RB Homer and No 5 RB Lynch (off the couch)

                   Homer 11/12, Lynch 6/7

                   BOTH RB averaged only 1 yard/carry Last week!

And they have OLINE Injuries
          LT Duane Brown is QUESTIONABLE, and will “try to play”

          RG Iupati is QUESTIONABLE

                   Both missed last week…….           

 

PROP BET ADAMS OVER 82 Reception YARDS 


GB:  No 1   WR Davante Adams is finally healthy:  12 games 997 yards (12.0)

                    No other WR got to 500 yards

                   He missed 4 games in October looked subpar in November

 (43, 64, 41 yds)

                   Last 3 games 7/103, 13/116, 7/93

 

Gb’s stats are not good :

          Gb is 13-3, but they only outscored opponents by 63 points

                             (That would be a 10-6 type team at most)

          GB YPP differential was NEGATIVE at -.3

                   GB has actually been OUTGAINED for year

                   345 yards, give up 353 per game

PROP BET:  Wilson Rush yards OVER 25

          Reg Season:  21/gm

          Last 2 games:

                   Vs. SF: 8/29

                   Vs. Phi:  9/45

WITH Sea down to their 4th string RB, AND the season on the line

          EXPECT WILSON TO continue to run more……        


Pick Creation Time:
01/12/2020 9:07 AM
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