… Hou KC -10, 51
KC STRONG LEAN
KC is UNDERRATED
KC IMPROVED Defense: D giving up 11.5 points per
game last 6 games
New DC Steve Spagnuolo continues to improve
Last 6 Games (6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS)
17,9,16, 3,3,21)
Although this WAS against a
schedule of avg/poor offenses
And KC
played many games without a healthy Mahomes
3 games with Matt Moore
And 3 games with a clearly hobbled
Mahomes
KC 10-0 in their other
games
Ave win by 14 points in those 10 games
4-0 Weeks 1-4 (Ave win 10.25)
6-0 Last 6 games (Ave win 16.33)
Weeks 5-6 Mahomes Ankle
Injury
Weeks 7-9 Matt Moore
Week 10 Mahomes 1st
game back with kneecap, @ Ten
Hou: OVERRATED
Now 9-3 in Close game
(all decided by 7 or less)
Hou: Not
as Good without a healthy WR Will Fuller
No 2 WR Fuller missed last week. Watson is 1.5 yards/pass play worse in his
career without him.
That difference is the difference between the No12 passes and
the WORST passer in the league…
HC O’Brien says he is a game time Decision……
Fuller has been OUT since Week15 (groin)
Key Question: Can Hou Protect Watson?
Buffalo Sacked him 7x last week!
KC D:
2.8 Sacks per game (12th in league)
KC D:
FO Adjusted Sack Rate (10th in league)
Hou: OLINE ISSUES:
Tunsil: Banged up with an ankle injury
Tunsil graded out poorly lw: PFF grade 52 (60-69 graded is a
backup!)
Titus Howard: Been OUT since Week 9
******** STRONG LEAN KC OVER 2.5 sacks
… Sea/ GB -4.5 46.5
LIKE GB
Sea: OVERRATED:
11-2 in close games (decided by 1
score)
Sea only outscored opponents by 7
points in regular season
11-2 in close games (decided by 1
score)
THAT is the only reason they
are 12-5 SU!
Sea’s: Playoff win was
vs. a Philly team without Wentz for 3.5 quarters
And Sea’s RB Issues
are HUGE
Going with No4
RB Homer and No 5 RB Lynch (off the couch)
Homer
11/12, Lynch 6/7
BOTH
RB averaged only 1 yard/carry Last week!
And they have OLINE
Injuries
LT Duane Brown is QUESTIONABLE,
and will “try to play”
RG Iupati is
QUESTIONABLE
Both
missed last week…….
PROP BET ADAMS OVER 82 Reception YARDS
GB: No 1 WR Davante Adams is finally healthy: 12 games 997 yards (12.0)
No
other WR got to 500 yards
He missed 4 games in October
looked subpar in November
(43, 64, 41 yds)
Last 3 games 7/103, 13/116, 7/93
Gb’s stats are not good :
Gb is 13-3, but they only outscored
opponents by 63 points
(That would be a
10-6 type team at most)
GB YPP differential was NEGATIVE at
-.3
GB has actually been
OUTGAINED for year
345 yards, give up 353 per
game
PROP BET: Wilson Rush yards OVER 25
Reg
Season: 21/gm
Last 2 games:
Vs.
SF: 8/29
Vs.
Phi: 9/45
WITH Sea down to their
4th string RB, AND the season on the line
EXPECT WILSON
TO continue to run more……