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Fezzik

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2020-01-12T01:15:00.000Z 2020-01-12T01:15:00.000Z - NFL

303 Tennessee Titans
vs.
304 Baltimore Ravens

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

01/11/2020

NFL Totals

UN TEN/BAL

12-28

47

2

W

200

Analysis

  Min SF -7, 45

PASS

Cousins has to play at 4:35 EST

          He goes into the 1/3 cover start time subset……..

          Often ONE factor can be the key to the game…….

Cousins LOVES routine

AND this week is NOT normal

Upset win SUNDAY at New Orleans

Fly back to Minn

Then fly out to SF for a SATURDAY GAME

EVERY other remaining team, had their bye week, week 8 or later

SF:  Great Timing for a bye

          They had not had a bye since Week 4

EVERY other remaining team, had their bye week, week 8 or later

 

 

 

 

 

INJURY UPDATE:

Vikings WRs

                   Diggs:   Back at practice Thursday from illness

Thielen: Missed practice Thursday

Jeremy Fowler reports he is likely to play, but will be less than 100% after being cleated Wed, and requiring stitches.

Thielen had gotten Less than 110 IN TOTAL his last 5 games

                             Then went for 129 vs. Saints

SF Defense: 

                    MLB Kwon Alexander Active

                             Been out since 10/31

                             Coach Shanahan says he will NOT be there every snap

                                      But should return

                   DL Dee Ford likely to play

                             Per David Lombardi on Twitter (Rotoworld)

                             Been out since 11/17

THE KEY QUESTION:  How much will this help the struggling SF D!?

1st 7 games: 11points/gm 

EVERY opponent 20 points or less

Last 9 game: 26 points/gm      8 of 9 Opponents 20 points or MORE

 

The Defense Line still has major Cluster Injuries:

          11/21 Ronald Blair OUT

          11/25 DoMontre Moore OUT

          12/14 DJ JonesOUT

          12/27 Julian Taylor OUT

SF Offense IS better with key players back healthy

          TE Kittle missed 2 games in November

          FB Juszczyk missed 7 games:  returned 11/11

LEAN OVER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ten Balt -9 47

LEAN BALT

Baltimore:  Underrated?

          Team is 14-2, outscoring teams by 249 points (15.5 points/gm)

          However, team got even better when D improved

With CB Peters (10/20 1st gm), and return of CB Jimmy Smith (11/03)

With those two playing:

D dominating:

          D giving up 14 points/gm,  last 9 games

NO opponents has topped 21 points

          Baltimore Ave Win Margin is 21 PPG…..

          Baltimore is 9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS with Peters/Smith

          Average ATS Win by 15 PPG…..

 

         

 

 

 

 

 

Hou : Derek Henry :  Will his legs no longer be fresh?

          Vs. Hou 32/211

          Vs. NE 34/182

In his 4 year career, he has only had ONE game with 30 carries prior to that!

                   12/16/2018 he had 33/170 vs. Nyg

                   12/22/2018 the next week he was 21/84 (4.0) vs. Wash

Titans are Surging: 6-2 Last 8 games

          4 Blowout wins

          Win by 3 vs. KC

          Loss by 3 @Hou

          Loss by 10 vs. N Orl (trailed by 3 late, and fumbled, driving)

                   Derek Henry was OUT of that game

           Win @ NE

Titans got back CB:  Adoree Jackson (Foot):

          2017 1st rounder, ranked No6 CB by PFF

          Practised all year, has been out 4 games

 

 

 

Hou KC -9.5, 51

KC LINE MOVER BEST BET Fezzik Monday

KC is UNDERRATED

KC IMPROVED Defense: D giving up 11.5 points per game last 6 games

New DC Steve Spagnuolo continues to improve

          Last 6 Games (6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS) 17,9,16, 3,3,21)

                   Although this WAS against a schedule of avg/poor offenses

And KC played many games without a healthy Mahomes

          3 games with Matt Moore

          And 3 games with a clearly hobbled Mahomes                         

KC  10-0 in their other games

          Ave win by 14 points in those 10 games

          4-0 Weeks 1-4 (Ave win 10.25)

          6-0 Last 6 games (Ave win 16.33)

                   Weeks 5-6 Mahomes Ankle Injury

                   Weeks 7-9 Matt Moore

                   Week 10 Mahomes 1st game back with kneecap, @ Ten

 

 

Hou: OVERRATED
                   Now 9-3 in Close game (all decided by 7 or less)

Hou:   Not as Good without  a healthy WR Will Fuller

No 2 WR Fuller missed last week.  Watson is 1.5 yards/pass play worse in his career without him.

That difference is the difference between the No12 passes and the WORST passer in the league…

HC O’Brien says he is a game time Decision……

Fuller has been OUT since Week15 (groin)

Key Question: Can Hou Protect Watson?

          Buffalo Sacked him 7x last week!

          KC D:  2.8 Sacks per game (12th in league)

          KC D:  FO Adjusted Sack Rate (10th in league)

Hou: OLINE ISSUES:

          Tunsil: Banged up with an ankle injury

Tunsil graded out poorly lw: PFF grade 52 (60-69 graded is a backup!)              

Titus Howard: Been OUT since Week 9

         

 

 

Sea/ GB -4.5  46.5

LIKE GB

Sea:  OVERRATED:

          11-2 in close games (decided by 1 score)

          Sea only outscored opponents by 7 points in regular season

          11-2 in close games (decided by 1 score)

                   THAT is the only reason they are 12-5 SU! 

Sea’s:  Playoff win was vs. a Philly team without Wentz for 3.5 quarters

 

And Sea’s RB Issues are HUGE

          Going with No4 RB Homer and No 5 RB Lynch (off the couch)

                   Homer 11/12, Lynch 6/7

                   BOTH RB averaged only 1 yard/carry Last week!

And they have OLINE Injuries
          LT Duane Brown is QUESTIONABLE, and will “try to play”

          RG Iupati is QUESTIONABLE

                   Both missed last week…….           

 

 

GB:  No 1   WR Davante Adams is finally healthy:  12 games 997 yards (12.0)

                    No other WR got to 500 yards

                   He missed 4 games in October looked subpar in November

 (43, 64, 41 yds)

                   Last 3 games 7/103, 13/116, 7/93

 

Gb’s stats are not good :

          Gb is 13-3, but they only outscored opponents by 63 points

                             (That would be a 10-6 type team at most)

          GB YPP differential was NEGATIVE at -.3

                   GB has actually been OUTGAINED for year

                   345 yards, give up 353 per game

PROP BET:  Wilson Rush yards OVER 25ish

          Reg Season:  21/gm

          Last 2 games:

                   Vs. SF: 8/29

                   Vs. Phi:  9/45

WITH Sea down to their 4th string RB, AND the season on the line

          EXPECT WILSON TO continue to run more……        

Pick Creation Time:
01/08/2020 7:29 AM
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