… Min SF -7, 45
PASS
Cousins has to play at 4:35 EST
He goes into the 1/3 cover start time
subset……..
Often ONE factor can be the key to the
game…….
Cousins LOVES routine
AND this week is NOT normal
Upset win SUNDAY at New Orleans
Fly back to Minn
Then fly out to SF for a SATURDAY GAME
EVERY other remaining team, had their bye week, week 8 or
later
SF: Great Timing for a bye
They had not had a bye since
Week 4
EVERY other remaining team, had their bye week, week 8 or
later
INJURY UPDATE:
Vikings WRs
Diggs: Back at
practice Thursday from illness
Thielen:
Missed practice Thursday
Jeremy Fowler reports he is likely to
play, but will be less than 100% after being cleated Wed, and requiring
stitches.
Thielen had gotten Less than 110 IN
TOTAL his last 5 games
Then went for 129
vs. Saints
SF Defense:
MLB Kwon Alexander Active
Been out since
10/31
Coach Shanahan says
he will NOT be there every snap
But should
return
DL Dee Ford likely to play
Per David Lombardi
on Twitter (Rotoworld)
Been out since
11/17
THE KEY QUESTION: How much will this help the struggling SF D!?
1st
7 games: 11points/gm
EVERY opponent 20 points or less
Last 9 game: 26 points/gm
8 of 9 Opponents 20 points or
MORE
The
Defense Line still has major Cluster Injuries:
11/21
Ronald Blair OUT
11/25
DoMontre Moore OUT
12/14
DJ JonesOUT
12/27
Julian Taylor OUT
SF Offense IS better with key players back healthy
TE Kittle missed 2 games in November
FB Juszczyk missed 7 games: returned 11/11
LEAN OVER
… Ten Balt -9 47
LEAN BALT
Baltimore:
Underrated?
Team is 14-2, outscoring teams by 249
points (15.5 points/gm)
However, team got even better when D improved
With CB Peters (10/20 1st gm), and return of CB
Jimmy Smith (11/03)
With those two playing:
D dominating:
D giving up 14 points/gm, last 9 games
NO
opponents has topped 21 points
Baltimore Ave Win Margin is 21 PPG…..
Baltimore is 9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS with
Peters/Smith
Average ATS Win by 15 PPG…..
Hou : Derek Henry : Will his legs no longer be fresh?
Vs. Hou 32/211
Vs. NE 34/182
In his 4 year career, he has only had ONE game
with 30 carries prior to that!
12/16/2018 he had 33/170 vs.
Nyg
12/22/2018 the next week he
was 21/84 (4.0) vs. Wash
Titans are Surging: 6-2 Last 8 games
4 Blowout wins
Win by 3 vs. KC
Loss by 3 @Hou
Loss by 10 vs. N Orl (trailed by 3
late, and fumbled, driving)
Derek Henry was OUT of that
game
Win @ NE
Titans got back CB: Adoree Jackson (Foot):
2017 1st rounder, ranked
No6 CB by PFF
Practised all year, has been out 4
games
… Hou KC -9.5, 51
KC LINE MOVER BEST BET Fezzik Monday
KC is UNDERRATED
KC IMPROVED Defense: D giving up 11.5 points per
game last 6 games
New DC Steve Spagnuolo continues to improve
Last 6 Games (6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS)
17,9,16, 3,3,21)
Although this WAS against a
schedule of avg/poor offenses
And KC
played many games without a healthy Mahomes
3 games with Matt Moore
And 3 games with a clearly hobbled
Mahomes
KC 10-0 in their other
games
Ave win by 14 points in those 10 games
4-0 Weeks 1-4 (Ave win 10.25)
6-0 Last 6 games (Ave win 16.33)
Weeks 5-6 Mahomes Ankle
Injury
Weeks 7-9 Matt Moore
Week 10 Mahomes 1st
game back with kneecap, @ Ten
Hou: OVERRATED
Now 9-3 in Close game
(all decided by 7 or less)
Hou: Not
as Good without a healthy WR Will Fuller
No 2 WR Fuller missed last week. Watson is 1.5 yards/pass play worse in his
career without him.
That difference is the difference between the No12 passes and
the WORST passer in the league…
HC O’Brien says he is a game time Decision……
Fuller has been OUT since Week15 (groin)
Key Question: Can Hou Protect Watson?
Buffalo Sacked him 7x last week!
KC D:
2.8 Sacks per game (12th in league)
KC D:
FO Adjusted Sack Rate (10th in league)
Hou: OLINE ISSUES:
Tunsil: Banged up with an ankle injury
Tunsil graded out poorly lw: PFF grade 52 (60-69 graded is a
backup!)
Titus Howard: Been OUT since Week 9
… Sea/ GB -4.5 46.5
LIKE GB
Sea: OVERRATED:
11-2 in close games (decided by 1
score)
Sea only outscored opponents by 7
points in regular season
11-2 in close games (decided by 1
score)
THAT is the only reason they
are 12-5 SU!
Sea’s: Playoff win was
vs. a Philly team without Wentz for 3.5 quarters
And Sea’s RB Issues
are HUGE
Going with No4
RB Homer and No 5 RB Lynch (off the couch)
Homer
11/12, Lynch 6/7
BOTH
RB averaged only 1 yard/carry Last week!
And they have OLINE
Injuries
LT Duane Brown is QUESTIONABLE,
and will “try to play”
RG Iupati is
QUESTIONABLE
Both
missed last week…….
GB: No 1 WR Davante Adams is finally healthy: 12 games 997 yards (12.0)
No
other WR got to 500 yards
He missed 4 games in October
looked subpar in November
(43, 64, 41 yds)
Last 3 games 7/103, 13/116, 7/93
Gb’s stats are not good :
Gb is 13-3, but they only outscored
opponents by 63 points
(That would be a
10-6 type team at most)
GB YPP differential was NEGATIVE at
-.3
GB has actually been
OUTGAINED for year
345 yards, give up 353 per
game
PROP BET: Wilson Rush yards OVER 25ish
Reg
Season: 21/gm
Last 2 games:
Vs.
SF: 8/29
Vs.
Phi: 9/45
WITH Sea down to their
4th string RB, AND the season on the line
EXPECT WILSON
TO continue to run more……