SATURDAY PROPS (Might add Saturday morning)
2* Devin Singletary O66.5 Rush Yds -110 (WHill)
This line is not out on all the offshores yet, but it's out at almost all NJ/Vegas books and wanted to get it out ASAP as I anticipate it moving quickly. FYI, 63.5 is available at Fanduel and Draftkings in NJ.
Singletary has taken full control of this backfield, playing 96% of the snaps in his last game after playing 70% of the snaps for most of the season. On the year, Singletary has put up 65 YPG in that 70% role, so we can expect a increase in opportunity against the Texans. The Texans defense has allowed 4.92 YPC over their last 9 games to opposing running backs
1* N'Keal Harry O2.5 Receptions -120 (Bookmaker)
1* Deandre Hopkins O5.5 Receptions -150 (Bookmaker, O6 -120 is fine!)
6 PT TEASER: BILLS +9/SAINTS -2
Simple handicap here, Bills are the better team. The Bills are ranked 13th in DVOA, Texans are ranked 19th.
Bills were +55 in point differential, and the Texans were minus 7. Texans wide
receiver Will Fuller will either be out or playing hurt, which is concerning for
Deshaun Watson, who for his career averages over 1.5 yards per attempt less
when Fuller is off the field. Deshaun Watson’s game is built off deep shots,
but the Bills defense is allowing the 2nd least 20+ yard completions
in the NFL. Since the JJ Watt injury, the Texans defense is in the bottom third
of the league in run defense plus multiple pass rush metrics. The Bills have only lost ONE game by over a touchdown this season, and are 6-0-2 ATS on the road this season.
The Saints are one of the hottest teams in the league entering the playoffs. They have won 6 of their last 7 games, winning their last 3 by double digits. The Saints have a +95 point differential over their last 7 games. They are 6-1 SU in the Payton/Brees era at home in the playoffs, with the only loss coming in last years NFC title game robbery. Minnesota struggles against upper end teams, specifically on the road (they are 1-4 SU this year against playoff teams, and Cousins is 7-30 SU in his career against teams with a winning record). Minnesota has cluster injuries to the secondary, while Drew Brees is averaging 8.2 YPA and 333 YPG at HOME this season.