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2019-11-17T18:00:00.000Z 2019-11-17T18:00:00.000Z - NFL

461 NY Jets
vs.
462 Washington Commanders|

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

11/17/2019

NFL Sides

Jets

34-17

+2½

2

W

200

Analysis

ADD a 2 star TEASER:

457 Jax +8.5 with JETS +8.5 -120

2 STARS  

I Like the Jets, and lean to the Jax.

So teasing both +2.5s UP is a solid play

ADD:  Tampa Bay TEAM TOTAL OVER 22.5 points -120, 2 stars


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WASH -2.5

I LIKE the JETS 

Matchup Edge JETS:

Washington Under Callahan has been emphasizing the run

          Wash has 14 more rushes than passes the last 3 games

The Jets D stuff the run:

          Jets give up 3.0 y/rush NO.1 in NFL!

FO has the Jets RUSH D at No2……..

 

And Wash QB Haskins is not to be trusted

          YTD:   O TD/4 INT

                  

                    @NYG  9/17 6.3 0/3 QBR 16.5

                   @ Min 3/5 33 6.6 0/1  QBR 0.1

@Buf 15/22 144 0/0 QBR 46

The Jets Darnold has struggled but he is still the clearly superior QB

         

I like the Jets+ 2.5, I bet the Jets +2.5

 

 

Dallas -6.5 DET

Stafford OUT (Hip)

Jeff Driskel, 5 point Downgrade vs. Stafford

          Driskel 27/46 269 5.8 1/1 Sacked 2x QBR 40 vs. Chic

Driskel 6th round pick, 2016 by 49ers Waived.

Jeff Driskel, 2018 QBR 30, (8 games with Bengals, started last 5)

          2018 QBR BELOW every QB but 1 (Rosen 24)

Driskel LOST his job to 4th Round Pick Rookie Ryan Findley……

Impact of Stafford: I made the game

Dal -2  vs 100% Stafford   Dal -7 vs Driskel

Dallas:  No. 1 FO Offensive Team

Dallas:  Shorter Week on RD off tough physical SNF game vs. Min

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Orl -5/T BAY

TBay Receivers have the edge

 WRS Mike Evans and Chris Godwin BOTH in top5 in yards      

                   Saints best CB, Lattimore likely to miss

Went out in 2q (Julio Jones caught a 54 yd pass right after)

Saints’ Brees looked fine last week

Poor starts, but it was due mostly to Defensive Pressure

His arm looked fine……

 

Atl CAR -4

Atl in a letdown situation here:

Off THE Biggest UPSET of the year vs. Saints

 And now ON THE ROAD as a dog vs. Carolina…..

And Atl has new Injuries:

Starting RB Freeman is OUT

Starting TE Hooper is OUT  He is a top 5 TE in league

 

 

 

Jax/IND -2.5 

Foles Returns:    2.5 point UPGRADE vs. Minshew

Minshew:  Had been struggling after a good start

25th now in QBR (45)

3 of his last starts have been subpar (QBR 35 or less)

          Hoyer:        Pit 17/26 168 6.5 3/1 QBR 55.5

                             Mia 18/39 204 5.2 1/3 QBR 5.0

The Big Question:  Is Brissett 100%?  He is probable with an MCL Sprain

          Healthy Brissett is 3.5 point upgrade….

Hoyer had disappointed……and was awful vs Mia (QBR 5 vs. Mia)!

Did the team Rush back Brissett? 

TY HILTON Unlikely to return  Worth 1 point.

Den/MIN -10.5

Min winning trends:

Cousin 1 pm EST start time:  66% ATS

Zimmer at home vs. nondivision:  24-6-1 ATS

Min 11-1 SU,  Min 11-0-1 ATS pre bye

Den Brandon Allen totally unproven, 1st road game  in NFL

          And faces the Min D and the noise in the Stadium…….

Den:  Brandon vs. Clev 12/20 192 9.7 2/0 Sacked 3x QBR 41 RTG 125.6

Buf/Mia +6.5

Mia:  Undervalued every week

5-0 ATS with Fitz

Mia has outscored opponents with him by 2 points since he entered vs. Wash 5 games ago

Fitz a top 10 QB last 5 Weeks (QBRs 76 70 43 80 60)

Mia outplayed Buf in 21-31 loss 3 weeks ago

          Won yardage by 75 yards  WON 1st downs by 7

Hou/BAL-4

Hou:  Rarely gets blown out:

Hou has lost 8 games in the regular season the last 2 years

          ALL of them have been by 7 or fewer points…..

Hou:  Energy Edge:

Hou off a bye

Baltimore off 3 straight stellar games (@Sea, NE, @ Cin)

Hou win in their last game was VERY impressive

Crushed a Jax team that was used to playing in

 

 

 

Az/SF-11.5  Lean AZ 11.5

Rematch of a recent Thursday Night game 2 weeks ago

          SF Jimmy G was missing Kittle and Sanders last week

                   Kittle OUT, and Sanders Questionable

They got 60% of Jimmy G’s 317 yards passing in the 1st meeting between the teams 2 weeks ago…….

                  

Kyler Murray keeps improving:  QBR now 57, now 14 in league

Az:      UNDERVALUED based on Muray’s slow start to year

          2 of his 1st 4 games he struggled (Det, Sea)

                                      

Bad spot Az: 4th rd game in 5 weeks

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

...  Ne/PHILLY 3.5

NE:  Key edge, off a blowout loss, AND a bye AND SBowl Revenge from 2 seasons ago.

Pats 55-24 ATS with Revenge (going back to 2000)

Pats have had 2 Revenge games THIS year

          Beat Pit 33-3

          Beat Mia 43-0

SB Revenge (64%)

Pats 13-4 ATS playing with rest

Eagles:  Health on offense still an issue:

          WR DesEan Jackson out for year

          WR Jeffrey ? T Jason Peters ? RB Jordan Howard?

Ne:  Still hurting on offense:

          30th in league in Yards/rush (3.2)

                   Missing the 2 lineman and FBack

And NE missing downfield Receivers:

          Only 1 WR over 300 yards Edelman (10.5 y/R)

          Sanu a possession receiver also (8.7 y/r)

          Speed WR Dorsett got banged up in 1st half last game

 

 

Cin/OAK-10.5

OAK:   1st game in a long time in a good spot

3rd straight home game

After a 21,000 miles, 5 game road trip Odyssey we can make case team finally is fully rested

                   10 days to prepare……

2-0 SU/ATS vs. Det, then Chargers (both coinflip games)

Cin:  Clear cut worst team in NFL

          Failed miserably in a home run spot vs. Balt

          Team:  Resigned that they cannot compete

                   RAN MIxon 30+ times Sunday (despite losing by 35)

                   Team got down big, and just gave up…..and chose to run

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chic/Rams -6.5

Rams Offense:  Cluster OLINE injuries: Missing 3 starters

C:  Brian Allen injured last week, OUT FOR SEASON

T:  Noteboom out for season 10/14

          RT:  Havenstein: Inj last week, OUT

                   Rams juggling entire OLINE

Teams played a dead nuts UNDER last year

          Rams 6 CHICAGO 15

          Rams 214 yards, CHIC 294

                   Game WAS played In cold conditions….

         
Bears:   Offense continue to struggle

          Did not cross midfield until 2:00 left in 1st half vs. Det

          3rd game of last 4 Chic offense has failed in 1st half

Vs. Saints, Eagles and Lions

 

Pick Creation Time:
11/15/2019 7:43 AM
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